Flash Flood Warning 59, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
339 AM CDT MON JUN 14 1999

IR AND WV STLT IMAGERY SHOWING H5 LOW SPINNING OVER ECNTRL NM THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY MAKING SLOW EWD PROGRESS.  TSRA CONT TO DVLP IN
AREA OF LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ACRS SE NM...SWD ALG GUADALUPES /TRANS
PECOS...INTO BIG BEND AND WRN PB.  THE NRN EXTENT ALSO ASSOCIATED
WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WK H5 LOW AND LATTER EXTENSION OF
CONVECTION OVER OLD MEXICO.

XPC WK H5 LOW WILL CONT WEAKENING AND FILL IN AS H25 JET PULLS NEWD.
ADDITIONAL H5 SHRTWV ENERGY TO SETTLE ACRS CWA THRU PD...BUT RMNS
WEAK AND SHEARED.  HAVE INCLUDED POPS DECREASING FM SW TO NE ACRS
CWA...WITH MORNING WORDING FOR NERN COUNTIES.  THINK BEST CHC PCPN
WILL RMN WWD AND SWD DURG REST OF PD AS HIGH PRES FM H7 TO SFC AND
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE TAKE CONTROL NERN TWO/THIRDS CWA BEGINNING THIS
AFTN.  WILL GO WITH GRADUALLY LOWER POPS LATTER PDS ALG MTNS...BIG
BEND AND EWD AS SFC BNDRY AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD COMBINE TO
PRODUCE ACTIVITY...SPCLY AFTN/EVNG.  LEFT MINIMAL POPS IN SWRN
TWO/THIRDS CWA TUE NGT.

CAA CONT THRU TDY WITH MAF GUIDANCE TEMPS FORECASTING RECORD LOW MAX
FOR TDY.  IF CLD CVR PERSISTS ACRS MOST OF CWA COULD SEE THIS.  FOR
NOW...WILL PLAY IT AS MSTLY CLDY THIS MORNING/PTLY CLDY THIS AFTN ALL
AREAS.  FWC GUIDANCE ALSO TIES RECORD LOW OF 56 DEGREES TNGT...WITH
FAN CLOSE SCND AT 57.  POSSIBILITY WE COULD CLEAR ENUF TNGT FOR SUCH
READINGS...BUT AGAIN FOR NOW WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE AND GO ONE CAT
ABV.  COOL TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PERSIST THRU PD AS HIGH
PRES BEGINS EWD MOVE LATE TUE.  REST OF GUID DOESN/T LOOK TO
UNREASONABLE...SO WILL STICK PRETTY CLOSE.

MAF 75/58/82 3/-/0
CNM 77/56/85 1/0/0
MRF 72/53/77 4/3/2
P07 78/63/80 4/3/2

AKL

NMZ027>029-TXZ045>048-050>052-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-150500-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
525 AM CDT (425 AM MDT) MON JUN 14 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS:
ANDREWS   CULBERSON  GLASSCOCK   MARTIN    REAGAN   UPTON
BORDEN    DAWSON     HOWARD      MIDLAND   REEVES   WARD
BREWSTER  ECTOR      JEFF DAVIS  PECOS     SCURRY   WINKLER
CRANE     GAINES     LOVING      PRESIDIO  TERRELL

AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO:
EDDY      LEA

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
AND BY AFTERNOON THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER.  THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
MINIMAL.

SYNOPSIS:
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE STABLE AS COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INVADES THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.  THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE FAR SOUTH AND WESTERN AREAS
NEAR A CARLSBAD...TO MARFA...TO DEL RIO LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS FROM NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING.  AS IT DOES THERE IS A THREAT OF NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN THIS MORNING.  A DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO
APPROACH FROM NORTHERN MEXICO...AND INCREASE THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ALONG THE BIG BEND.

A FEW THESE STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...BUT A WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS NOT LIKELY.

FLASH FLOODING WILL POSE THE BIGGEST THREAT AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINS ACROSS SATURATED GROUNDS WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

FOR THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK...PLEASE SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSSJT
(WWUS35 KSJT).

SD