Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
209 PM CDT MON JUN 7 1999

TROF/DRYLINE BACKED AGAINST NM/TX MTNS TDA WITH DWPNTS IN 50S AND
60S ACRS CWA.  H5 SHRTWV TROF CONT NEWD FM NCNTRL TX PER WV STLT
IMAGERY.  H5 TROF CENTERED OVER PAC NW/SW BC WITH FLATTENED H5 RDG
ACRS MUCH OF SRN U.S. BUILDING WSWWD THRU TX.  UNMODIFIED 12Z KMAF
SNDG NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS LAST COUPLE DAYS WITH -6 LI...CAPE ARND
1000 J/KG AND LTL TO NO CAP AGAIN.

AS H5 LOW EJECTS NEWD...OMEGA BLOCK FORMS OVER NWRN U.S. WITH BROAD
TROF UNDERCUTTING ACRS SWRN U.S. BY END OF PD.  END RESULT WILL BE
WEAK SHRTWV/S GRAZING MAINLY SERN N.M. THRU 00Z/10 IN WEAKER H5 FLOW.
LOW LVL MSTR WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT DURG THE SAME PD WITH
QUASI/STATIONARY TROF/DRYLINE PROVIDING FOCUS...MAINLY ACRS TX/N.M.
MTNS IN PERSISTENT LOW LVL SERN FLOW.  WEAK H7-5 LAYER Q/VECTOR
CONVERGENCE BCM EVIDENT OVER WRN TX/WRN NM TUE AFTN AND WITH
INCREASE IN MID LVL MSTR SHOULD BE ABLE TO DVLP/SUSTAIN CONVECTION.
H7-H5 Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE INCREASES SLGTLY THRU END OF WEEK...BUT
MID LVL THERMAL RDG ALSO BEGINS TO HEAT UP AND SHIFT EWD INTO AREA NR
END OF PD AND EXTENDED. THIS COULD SERVE TO SQUELCH SOME OF THE TSRA
CHC...SPCLY OVER ERN PORTIONS CWA. NOT SURE WHETHER 15-16C H7 TEMPS
ENUF TO HINDER TSRA OVER MTNS.

SLY/SELY WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU PD AT SFC WITH DIURNAL 20-30KT H85
JET.  XPC GENERALLY 5-15 MPH WINDS OVNGT/10-20 MPH DURG DAY WITH
BOUTS OF MORNING LOW CLDS MAINLY ACRS ERN SECTIONS CWA.

PREFER FAN TEMPS TO FWC...DESPITE INCREASE IN HIGH LVL SUBTROPICAL
MSTR AHD OF WRN TROF.  IN THE EXTENDED...WILL OPT FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS
AND LTL WARMER TEMPS AS H5 RDG/H7 THERMAL RDG BUILDS INTO AREA PER
CONSISTENCY IN MRF RUNS AND AGREEMENT IN OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.

MAF 68/92/67/93  2/1/2/1
CNM 67/93/66/94  3/2/2/2
MRF 58/89/58/90  3/2/3/2
P07 69/92/69/91  3/2/3/2

AKL