Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
212 PM CDT (112 PM MDT) SUN MAY 9 1999

ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...LAPS DERIVED CAPES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS ALREADY IN THE
3500-4500 RANGE.  CURRENTLY DRYLINE LOCATED FROM NEAR A BOQUILLAS TO
KMRF TO KCVN LINE.  LI/S EAST OF THE DRYLINE RANGE FROM -6 OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES TO -10 OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. LOOKING AT
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING
REACHED AS A CU FIELD BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS
REGION AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE IN PHASE WITH THE
DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTHWAVE SWINGS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS BY 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH HIGH CAPES AND
WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY GO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS.

AFTER THAT...MODELS TYPICALLY DON/T HANDLE THE DRYLINE VERY WELL...SO
WILL GO WITH INSTINCT AND SAY THAT DRYLINE WILL NOT MOVE THAT MUCH
OVERNIGHT OR TOMORROW.  MODELS DON/T MOVE THE DRYLINE MUCH THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER THEY DO HAVE IT TOO FAR EAST.

MAF 063/093 060/090 3222
CNM 061/093 060/090 2111
MRF 055/088 053/086 2111
P07 063/090 063/090 2111

MARTIN

NMZ027>029-TXZ045>048-050>052-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-100500-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
1219 PM CDT (1119 AM MDT) SUN MAY 9 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS:
ANDREWS CULBERSON GLASSCOCK MARTIN REAGAN UPTON

BORDEN      DAWSON      HOWARD      MIDLAND      REEVES      WARD
BREWSTER    ECTOR       JEFF DAVIS  PECOS        SCURRY      WINKLER
CRANE       GAINES      LOVING      PRESIDIO     TERRELL

AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO:

EDDY        LEA

SYNOPSIS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN...SOUTH PLAINS...AND SOUTHWESTERN LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA TODAY.

LATE THIS SUNDAY MORNING...THE DRYLINE WAS NOTED FROM
NEAR LAJITAS...TO THE EASTERN DAVIS MOUNTAINS...TO WEST OF CARLSBAD.
IT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY...AND BE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY FROM
THE EASTERN BIG BEND...THROUGH THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN...TO NEAR
SEMINOLE.  AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE DRYLINE.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY AS THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE ENERGY IS HIGH.  THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.  HOWEVER WITH STRONGER
FORECASTED WIND SHEAR ALOFT...ROTATING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES IS POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

RSB

NMZ027>029-TXZ045>048-050>052-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-100500-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...CORRECTED WORDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
1227 PM CDT (1127 AM MDT) SUN MAY 9 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS:
ANDREWS CULBERSON GLASSCOCK MARTIN REAGAN UPTON

BORDEN      DAWSON      HOWARD      MIDLAND      REEVES      WARD
BREWSTER    ECTOR       JEFF DAVIS  PECOS        SCURRY      WINKLER
CRANE       GAINES      LOVING      PRESIDIO     TERRELL

AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO:

EDDY        LEA

SYNOPSIS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN...SOUTH PLAINS...AND SOUTHWESTERN LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA TODAY.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE WAS NOTED FROM NEAR LAJITAS...TO
THE EASTERN DAVIS MOUNTAINS...TO WEST OF CARLSBAD.  IT SHOULD MOVE
SLOWLY EAST TODAY...AND BE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY FROM THE EASTERN
BIG BEND...THROUGH THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN...TO NEAR SEMINOLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.  AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE DRYLINE.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY AS THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE ENERGY IS HIGH.  THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.  HOWEVER WITH STRONGER
FORECASTED WIND SHEAR ALOFT...ROTATING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

RSB