Flash Flood Warning 103, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
345 PM CDT SAT SEP 4 1999

SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS
OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.  THE AREA REMAINS UNDER
A MID LEVEL MONSOONAL FETCH FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...AND WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  WEAK SHEAR...MODERATE
BUOYANCY...AND A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN ARGUE FOR MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF
BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.  ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS PUSHING
SEVERE CRITERION COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS THIS
EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WEST OF A LAMESA...FT. STOCKTON...
BIG BEND NP LINE.  LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD ALSO OCCUR...PARTICULARLY
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINS YESTERDAY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW SOUTHWARD TRANSLATION OVERNIGHT
AND SHOULD ENTER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA
SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL REMAIN
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWS TO A CRAWL OVER THE SOUTHERN CWFA.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE MONDAY...BUT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH OF A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION.  GUIDANCE
MAXIMA SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT THINKING.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THE SUMMER...GUIDANCE MINIMA ARE A FEW
DEGREES TOO LOW AREAWIDE AND WE WILL ADJUST UPWARD AS NEEDED.

REAL LONG TERM...
A FAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.  THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE BC COAST WILL TRANSLATE OVER THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES TUESDAY.  THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
MONDAY AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...BUT WILL TRANSLATE BACK TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE CWFA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

THAT'S A WRAP...SLUGGING PERCENTAGES FOLLOW...70.

THE PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE BELOW IS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY.
OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE WEST TEXAS/SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO ZONE FORECAST.

MAF  71/92/67/89    2232
LSA  65/92/67/88    2232
E41  70/92/68/90    2232
6R6  70/93/69/90    2232
MRF  60/87/60/84    4333
CNM  66/91/65/88    3332

.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.