Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
259 AM EDT SUN SEP 5 1999

DENNIS CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW INTO CNTRL N CAROLINA ATTM AS INDICATED
IN SAT IMAGERY...RADAR RETURNS AND SFC OBS WHICH IS ABOUT TRACK WITH
THE 00Z GFDL GUIDANCE. 00Z ETA TRACKS THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS ON A MORE
NORTHERLY COURSE MUCH LIKE THE PREV TPC 03Z TRACK. 00Z GFDL SLOWS THE
SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY TO NEAR DAN BY 8AM TUE THEN INTO N-CNTRL WV
THEREAFTER. AVN HAS PROBLEMS WITH THE SYSTEM BUT THEN FCSTS S/W IN THE
WESTERLIES WHICH DRIVES A CDFNT TO WRN OH AND CNTRL KY IN 36 HRS TO
INTERACT WITH THE ERN UPR TROF/DENNIS REMNANTS BEYOND THAT TIME. THE
CDFNT IS FCST BY 48-60 HRS TO BE N-S VCNTY OF THE SHENANDOAH VLY WHICH
LKLY MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING WHAT IS FCST TO OCCUR IN THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SCALE. SO WHAT'S THE CORRECT SOLN...PROBABLY A BLEND OF THE
03Z TPC TRACK...THE ETA AND PERHAPS EVEN THE AVN PER CDFNT INTERACTION.

ANYWAY...IT IS COMING UP DECISION TIME ONCE AGAIN HERE. AS DENNIS
CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN TO LESS THAN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IT MAY WELL
BE PRUDENT TO DISCONTINUE TS WRNGS OVER THE MD CHES BAY AND TIDAL
POTOMAC. CURRENT THINKING IS SCA(25-30 KTS) AND CFW FOR ABNORMAL TIDES
COULD HANDLE THE SITU BEYOND THIS TIME. THIS WUD ALSO NIX ANY FURTHER
NEED FOR HLS' WHILE THE ONGOING SITU WUD BE HANDLED THRU SPS'.

OTW HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE BIG PROBLEM OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA THRU TNGT WITH THE EMPHASIS FROM THE BLUE RDG W AS INDICATED IN
NCEP LTST QPF. THEREFORE WILL PLACE RMNDR OF W ZNS UNDER A FFA. ANY
FUTURE SVR WW'S FOR TDA AND PSBLY TNGT WILL BE HANDLE IN THE USUAL
MANNER.

OTW THAT'S IT FOR NOW...LATER.

.LWX...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS VAZ052>055-057-MDZ007-011-013>014-
       016>018-DCZ001-060000-
       FLOOD WATCH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY VAZ025>031-036>042-
       050>057-MDZ003>007-009>011-013>014-016>018-WVZ050>053-055-
       DCZ001-060000-

PAP