Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
358 AM EDT MON MAY 17 1999

...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED RDG CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND MAIN LOW OVER CENTRAL IA. SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE TO
LINGER OVER LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND AFFECTS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED MID LEVEL S/W SPINNING OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND MODELS INITIALIZE IT FAIRLY WELL. THIS FEATURE TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTH OF THE LWR OH VLY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AS TROUGH APPROACHES KY THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS AT H85 TURN MORE TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND PULL A TONGUE OF 14C TO 16C UP INTO FA. EVEN
WITH SOME AC AND DEVELOPING CU TODAY...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
REACHING NGM MOS MAX TEMPS. AS FAR AS CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON
GOES...MAY ADD LOW POPS OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FA. ALL
OF THE MODELS BEGIN TO ADVECT HIGHER THTA-E VALUES INTO AREA AND ETA
FORECAST LI/S ARE IN THE -2 TO -6 INTO TONIGHT. ETA SEEMS TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND VVEL FIELDS SO GENERALLY
FOLLOWED IT FOR LOW LEVEL PARAMETERS. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHLD BE IN PLACE THIS AFTN...NEED A TRIGGER AND THIS MAY
COME FROM A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT OR FROM MCS DEVELOPING OVER
SRN PLAINS. NOT SURE IF IT IS THIS CONVECTION OR NOT...BUT ETA AND
NGM DO BRING A SMALLER VORT AHEAD OF MAIN S/W INTO NW KY BY 00Z. IF
WE GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE TODAY FEEL AT LEAST A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE LATER TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL S/W
MOVES IN ALONG WITH SFC TROUGH. IN ADDITION...CNTRL KY IS UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF H30 80 KT JET MAX BTWN 06Z-12Z. THIS IS REFLECTED
IN DECENT VVEL/S OVER SDF FROM 06Z-12Z ON ETA TIME-HEIGHT X-SCTN.
ALTHOUGH FORECAST WIND FIELDS NOT VERY STRONG...FEEL FEW ISOLD SVR
STORMS PSBL LATER THIS AFTN AND THEN LATER TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...GREATER COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT.

EVEN THOUGH ETA TRIES TO DRY OUT ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY MIDDAY
TUES OVER WESTERN PART OF FA...WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP OPEN
ENDED FOR NOW. MAY GO A BIT HIGHER OVER EASTERN CNTIES.

.SDF...NONE.

MARIEN

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-180000-

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
455 PM EDT MON MAY 17 1999

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO MOVE FURTHER NORTHEAST AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND KENTUCKY.

THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION. SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION
MAY BE REQUESTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CONGER