Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
420 AM EDT THU JUL 1 1999

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS THIS MORNING ARE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WARM FRONT IS RETURNING NORTH ACROSS KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
ONE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF
STATE. THIS AREA IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST BUT MORE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING ORGANIZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EAST INTO MISSOURI. ATMOSHERE ALSO REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH TROPICAL
AIR SPREADING NORTH.

THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30
KTS ARE JUST OFF THE SURFACE ON KLVX VAD WIND PROFILE. MIXING WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS TODAY AND WILL KEEP STRONGER WINDS IN
FORECAST. MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY...AT
LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER AM CONCERNED
THAT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN MISSOURI COULD HOLD TOGETHER AND
AFFECT NORTHERN SECTIONS NEAR LOUISVILLE AND LEX. WILL KEEP LIKELY
POPS IN FORECAST.

NEXT VORT MAX HEADING INTO FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z AND WILL ADD
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN
NORTHERN PART OF AREA...CLOSER TO FRONT AND CLOSER TO BEST UPWARD
MOTION. THESE TWO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEPICTED ON
TIME SECTIONS FOR BOTH ETA AND NGM.

AFTER TONIGHT...MOST OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH OF
FORECAST AREA. HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL SETTLE IN OVER KENTUCKY WITH
HIGHS GOING WELL INTO THE 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SDF...NONE.
SCHOLZ

KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-INZ076>079-083-
084-089>092-020300-

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1238 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL  KENTUCKY AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR HAS BECOME ENTRENCHED ACROSS ALL OF
THE LISTENING AREA. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ACROSS
MISSOURI SHOULD RACE EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTER-
NOON AND EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES...A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
ALSO...TORRENTIAL RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION
ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION. SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUESTED LATER TODAY.

STUREY