Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
250 PM EDT WED APR 28 1999

WARMING OF THE MOIST / LOW LAYERS PLUS COLD AIR SWEEPING IN ALOFT..
HAS INSTIGATED NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS FA THIS AFTN.  MODELS VERY
SIMILIAR IN TAKING SRN IL VERTICALLY STACKED LOW  SEWD OVNGT INTO
TN BY THU MRNG.  THE SHORT TERM CONCENTRATION  OF PCPN SHUD BE ACRS
CNTRL KY/SRN IND NEAR LOW  LVL CONVG BNDRY... AXIS OF 1000-2000J/KG
CAPES...THETA E RDG AXIS... AND ON NOSE OF WLY JET STREAK. WILL HIT
POPS HARD TNGT MUCH OF FA..WITH A DMNSHG TREND NRN PART OF FA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AGAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY SVR WX MODE THRU THE
EVNG. TEMPS OK FM FAN/FWC GUIDE.

AS TROFFINESS THEN SLIPS SOUTH THRU RGN ON THU...CLDS/PCPN SHUD ALSO
SLIP SOUTH WITH TIME.  WILL  HOLD ONTO SML PCPN CHC SDF-LEX CORRIDOR
ERY...AND KEEP CHCS GOING SRN KY ALL DAY. HAVE PLAYED A BIT MORE OF
A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH CLEARING NRN SECTIONS THU AFTN...AS
SOUNDING INFO STILL SHOWS LINGERING LOW LVL MOIST.

AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH TIME AND TROF SLIPS INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH... QUIET WX WILL ENCOMPASSE ENTIRE FA FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

H85 THERMAL PTN...PLUS GOING THICKNESSS...SUPPORTS FWC/FAN GUIDE
OF COOLING TREND THRU FRI.

.SDF...NONE.
STUREY

KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-INZ076>079-083-
084-089>092-282200-

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1040 AM EDT WED APR 28 1999

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL
MOVE INTO KENTUCKY LATER TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF A MILD...MOIST
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE...COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
(IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW) WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

BECAUSE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT...SOME OF THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE HAIL.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION. SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

STUREY

KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-INZ076>079-083-
084-089>092-282200-

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1040 AM EDT WED APR 28 1999

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL
MOVE INTO KENTUCKY LATER TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF A MILD...MOIST
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE...COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
(IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW) WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

BECAUSE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT...SOME OF THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE HAIL.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION. SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

STUREY