Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Lake Charles, LA

SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
148 AM CDT MON MAY 10 1999

ETA / NGM /AVN PROGS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AXIS TO
EAST TEXAS THIS MORNING...INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA THIS EVENING TO
EASTERN EXTREMES OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THEY ALSO
PROG ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE AXIS TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY MID-DAY
TUESDAY. AVN SHOWING WEAKER SHORT-WAVE TODAY DISSIPATING NEAR RIDGE
AXIS. AVN SHOWS 250 MB DIVERGENT PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
BY MID DAY TODAY AND SHIFTING OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST PARTS OF
THE AREA MID NIGHT TONIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MODERATE TO HIGH
MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EVENING DRYING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MODERATE LEVEL TUE. ETA
SHOWS A RESURGENCE IN MOISTURE FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WHILE ETA / NGM
ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THAT PERIOD IN THEIR DISTRIBUTION OF MEAN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

GIVEN SIMILARITY OF NGM TO OTHER MODELS EXCEPT FOR ETA/S MOISTURE
DISTRIBUTION TUESDAY IT LOOKS AS THOUGH NGM MOS POPS / TEMPS SHOULD
BE PRETTY GOOD AND WILL USE THEM WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

20-SPARKS

LCH CB 082/069 085/071 522
LFT CB 085/069 085/069 422
AEX CB 083/068 083/070 632
BPT CB 083/069 086/072 522