Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
135 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 1999

...FORECAST CHALLENGE...WHERE WILL THE CAP BREAK FIRST?...

...SYNOPSIS...VOLATILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA PUTS
MOST OF IT IN MDT RISK FOR THIS AFT/EVENING. FAIRLY STRONG CAP LIKELY
TO SUPPRESS ANYTHING FROM FIRING OVER SOUTHWEST NEB. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NERN CO/SW NEBRASKA WITH DRY LINE
FROM NEAR GORDON SOUTH TO BETWEEN OGA AND LBF...CONT SOUTH. ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS UNSTABLE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH GOOD S/W COMING EXPECT TO SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

...MODEL PERFORMANCE...
MRF AND ETA IN FAIR AGREEMENT...AND ETA IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE BASED ON
PAST PERFORMANCE. HAS GOOD CONSISTENCY PER D-PROG DT/AWIPS. ETA 700 MB
TEMPS VERIFYING WELL WITH 18Z SOUNDING DONE HERE.

TONIGHT...
MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE LBF DESPITE SIGNIFICANT CAP.
FAIR 700MB SHORTWAVE COMING IN AT ABOUT 00Z TONIGHT OVER
PANHANDLE...PERFECT TIMING TO GET THINGS GOING. EXPECTING INITIATION
NEAR TROFFINESS ENTERING NORTHERN NEB...INTERSECTING WITH LEFTOVER
OUTFLOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LBF AND THEDFORD. ONCE THINGS GET
GOING...SHOULD MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRIZED TO HAVE WW
DROPPED ON NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. NOTED THAT THINGS ARE ALREADY POPPING IN
SW KANSAS WHERE CAP IS ALSO SUPPOSED TO BE STRONG...

...SATURDAY/NIGHT...
EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME LEFT OVER MORNING STRATUS AGAIN...PERHAPS NEAR
VTN THIS TIME. EXPECT IT WILL BURN OFF BY MID-LATE MORNING. 700 MB TEMPS
FALL SOME...WITH GOOD S/W ENTERING AREA.  OUR CWA IS ONCE AGAIN
OUTLOOKED IN THE MODERATE RISK. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER
CWA INCLUDING SW. STILL GOOD OMEGA OVER MOST OF CWA AT SAT
06Z...BEGINNING TO SETTLE DOWN BY 12Z. GOING SOMEWHAT ABV FWC FOR AFT
HIGHS.

...SUNDAY...
EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...THEN DRYING OUT SOME ESPLY WERN ZONES
BY LATE AFTERNOON.

...EXTENDED...
LITTLE PATTERN CHANGE ON THE HORIZON UNTIL POSSIBLY MIDWEEK. MONDAY
STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOWS AROUND 60 AND HIGHS AROUND 80 SOMETHING.

.LBF...NONE

SLM