Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
225 AM EDT THU MAY 6 1999

NOT A LOT OF TIME FOR DETAILS THIS AM. WE ISSUED A FFA FOR ENTIRE CWA
UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING. THIS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE AND PLAN ON
CARRYING IT IN ZONES.

VERY LATEST SAT PIXS AND LOCAL AND RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW LIGHTNING
STRIKES DECR A BIT AND COLD TOPS WARMING JUST A BIT ALSO. STILL PLENTY
OF CONVECTION THOUGH..MOVING INTO W 1/2 OF CWA ATTM WITH SOME PRETTY
HEALTHY 1 HRLY RAIN AMOUNTS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS EVENT THIS MORNING
WILL BE A RAIN EVENT AND NOT SVR...AS VERY GOOD HVY PCPN DYNAMICS ARE
IN PLACE UNTIL AROUND 12-14Z OR SO THIS A.M.

MODELS AND CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THAT THIS ROUND OF WX WILL MOVE
THRU AND WEAKEN OVER THE CWA THRU THE AM HOURS. WILL WORD POPS FOR SOME
SHOWERS...FEW TSRA S THIS AM THEN BECOMING PC OR PS BY AFTERNOON...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THEN PC TONIGHT FOR AWHILE UNTIL THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE GINNS UP THE ATMOSPHERE AND ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROFF OF THE PESKY UPPER LOW. THIS WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION AROUND 06Z OR SO TONIGHT...BUT DOESNT APPEAR TO BE NEARLY AS
SERIOUS AS THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY.

LOOKS LIKE CHC POPS CONTINUE THRU ABOUT MIDDAY FRI THEN THAT ACTIVITY
MOVES ON OUT. TIMING A BIT TRICKY ON FRIDAY FOR POPS...PLANNING ON
GOING WITH THE MORNING PERIOD AGAIN THEN PS OR PC IN AFTERNOON.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MOVING TO ESE...
A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SAT AND SUN...PARTICULARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH HEATING...BUT DOESNT LOOK LIKE MUCH. WILL TWEAK THE
EXTENDED TO BE A LITTLE LESS PESSIMISTIC. WILL REMOVE CHC SHRAS ON
MON AS SHRT WAVE RIDGING MOVES IN BEHIND UPPER LOW ACRSS THE AREA.

MOS NUMBERS ARE CLOSE TODAY FOR A CHANGE AND WONT DEVIATE MUCH AT ALL.

WORK ZONES WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY UNDER AFOS HEADER SDFOZFJKL.
COMMENTS WELCOME.

.JKL...FFA UNTIL 7 AM EDT.

HALL