Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
900 PM EST FRI JAN 8 1999

CURRENT IR STLT INDICATES SHARP DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN WARM AND COLD
AIR. COLD CLOUD TOPS MAINLY IN WARM AIR WITH SOME MOD TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS OVER FA. RIVERS RISING AHEAD OF FCST BUT DON/T THINK MUCH TO
WORRY ABOUT MAJOR RIVER FLOODING. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORY ALREADY VERIFIED WITH RUNOFF COMPOUNDED BY FROZEN OR
SATURATED GROUND AND SNOW MELT. EXPECT COLD AIR TO PUT A HALT TO THIS
PROBLEM BY CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW AND FREEZING RUNOFF.

TIMING FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF
TONIGHT/S FRONT SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. FRONT ENTERS FA AROUND 06Z AND
SHOULD BE OVER MTS BY 15Z. AT SOME POINT TONIGHT/S RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
IS LEFT OVER BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRHT81 INDICATES AS MUCH AS .32
INCHES PCBL WATER AFTER EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD MEAN UP TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT COLD AIR TO CUT OFF RAIN UNTIL
LATER AND WET SNOW WILL NOT ACCUMULATE AS DEEP.

INITIALLY THE GROUND WILL BE WARM FROM THE PRECEEDING RAINS OF THIS
EVENING AND THE INITIAL SNOW WON/T ACCUMULATE UNTIL THE TEMP
DROPS. THEN ANYTHING WET WILL FREEZE AND ONCE IT DOES...SNOW WILL PILE
UP ON TOP OF ICE AND TRAVEL PROBLEMS WILL DEVELOP. TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR
THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH FREEZING OF SURFACE WATER COUPLED WITH FRESH
SNOW WILL BE THE MAJOR CONCERNS OF THE MORNING FCST. RECOMMEND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR REMAINDER OF CWA WITH MORNING FCST PACKAGE.

FOR NOW THE FCST APPEARS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES CURRENTLY PLANNED.
WILL CONTINUE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE CWA
UNTIL 12Z AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SW CWA. MAY NEED TO TRIM FFS
AS COLD AIR CUTS RUNOFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DUSTY