Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AMZ435-450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-071003-

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1030 AM EDT FRI MAY 7 1999

LATEST LOOK AT 88-D SHOWS LINE OF INTENSE TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN RAPIDLY APPROACHING
OUR WESTERN CWA. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING AT JAX INDICATES VERY MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...THE WIND PROFILE ALSO SUGGESTS A TORNADO TREAT AS WELL.
ESPECIALLY AS THE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH THE COAST AND INTERACT WITH
THE SEABREEZE.

BARRY

AMZ435-450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-072321-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1020 AM EDT FRI MAY 7 1999

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY.

HIGH LOCAL INSTABILITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRESENT A SIGNIFICANT
HAIL AND DOWNBURST THREAT FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
HAIL OVER AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND WINDS TO NEAR 60 MILES PER HOUR
ARE EXPECTED IN LATE AFTERNOON DOWNBURSTS.

THE PEAK THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL START WHEN THE LINE OF CONVECTION
STRETCHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO ENTER THE CWA.  THE
THREAT PERIOD WILL START IN THE GEORGIA COUNTIES OF ATKINSON...COFFEE
AND JEFF DAVIS AROUND NOON AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  DUE TO THE CURRENT WIND STRUCTURE...A POSSIBLE
TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH APPROACH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AND GAIN ROTATIONAL ENERGY FROM THAT INTERACTION.

EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LARGE HAIL...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS WITH RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS
OF AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER STORMS.

SKYWARN STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT
HTTP:WWW.NWSJAX.NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE).

WELSH

AMZ435-450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-072321-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1020 AM EDT FRI MAY 7 1999

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY.

HIGH LOCAL INSTABILITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRESENT A SIGNIFICANT
HAIL AND DOWNBURST THREAT FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
HAIL OVER AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND WINDS TO NEAR 60 MILES PER HOUR
ARE EXPECTED IN LATE AFTERNOON DOWNBURSTS.

THE PEAK THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL START WHEN THE LINE OF CONVECTION
STRETCHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO ENTER THE CWA.  THE
THREAT PERIOD WILL START IN THE GEORGIA COUNTIES OF ATKINSON...COFFEE
AND JEFF DAVIS AROUND NOON AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  DUE TO THE CURRENT WIND STRUCTURE...A POSSIBLE
TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH APPROACH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AND GAIN ROTATIONAL ENERGY FROM THAT INTERACTION.

EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LARGE HAIL...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS WITH RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS
OF AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER STORMS.

SKYWARN STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT
HTTP:WWW.NWSJAX.NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE).

WELSH

AMZ435-450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-072321-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1240 PM EDT FRI MAY 7 1999

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PART OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA UNTIL 5 PM EDT...

IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THE WATCH INCLUDES BRANTLEY...CAMDEN...CHARLTON
...GLYNN AND PIERCE COUNTIES. IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA THE WATCH INCLUDES
ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...CLAY...COLUMBIA...DUVAL...GILCHRIST...
MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM...ST JOHNS AND UNION COUNTIES.

A SQUALL LINE IS PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
THE WATCH AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE
OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HAIL OVER AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND WINDS NEAR 60 MPH. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO ESPECIALLY AS THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE COAST AND INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECIEVING IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OF RAIN. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF OVER 4 INCHES
OF RAIN IN THE TALLAHASSEE AREA AS THIS LINE OF STORMS MOVED THROUGH
THIS MORNING.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS THIS AFTERNOON...KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND
BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY. IF DRIVING...BE AWARE OF
PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAY.

SKYWARN STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT
HTTP:WWW.NWSJAX.NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE).

BARRY

AMZ435-450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-072321-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1240 PM EDT FRI MAY 7 1999

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PART OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA UNTIL 5 PM EDT...

IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THE WATCH INCLUDES BRANTLEY...CAMDEN...CHARLTON
...GLYNN AND PIERCE COUNTIES. IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA THE WATCH INCLUDES
ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...CLAY...COLUMBIA...DUVAL...GILCHRIST...
MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM...ST JOHNS AND UNION COUNTIES.

A SQUALL LINE IS PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
THE WATCH AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE
OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HAIL OVER AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND WINDS NEAR 60 MPH. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO ESPECIALLY AS THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE COAST AND INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECIEVING IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OF RAIN. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF OVER 4 INCHES
OF RAIN IN THE TALLAHASSEE AREA AS THIS LINE OF STORMS MOVED THROUGH
THIS MORNING.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS THIS AFTERNOON...KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND
BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY. IF DRIVING...BE AWARE OF
PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAY.

SKYWARN STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT
HTTP:WWW.NWSJAX.NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE).

BARRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 07 1999

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1100 AM    ELLAVILLE                 FL   50 MPH TSTM GUST
05/07/99   SUWANNEE

1140 AM                              FL   .75 INCH HAIL
05/07/99   COLUMBIA                       NEAR COLUMBIA CITY

1230 PM    WELLBORN                  FL   WIND DAMAGE
05/07/99   SUWANNEE                       THREE TREES DOWN

1250 PM                              GA   .75 INCH HAIL
05/07/99   CAMDEN                         NEAR CROOKED RIVER STATE
                                          PARK
0100 PM    JACKSONVILLE              FL   TORNADO
05/07/99   DUVAL                          REPORTED BY HAM OPERATOR
                                          TOUCHED DOWN NEAR NEW
                                          BERLEN ROAD

0210 PM                              FL   1.25 INCH HAIL
05/07/99   MARION                         HAIL REPORTED IN THE CITY
                                          OF FT MCCOY

0215 PM    CITRA                     FL   1.25 INCH HAIL
05/07/99   MARION

0220 PM    PEDRO                     FL   .75 INCH HAIL
05/07/99   MARION

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 07 1999

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1100 AM    ELLAVILLE                 FL   50 MPH TSTM GUST
05/07/99   SUWANNEE

1140 AM                              FL   .75 INCH HAIL
05/07/99   COLUMBIA                       NEAR COLUMBIA CITY

1230 PM    WELLBORN                  FL   WIND DAMAGE
05/07/99   SUWANNEE                       THREE TREES DOWN

1250 PM                              GA   .75 INCH HAIL
05/07/99   CAMDEN                         NEAR CROOKED RIVER STATE
                                          PARK
0100 PM    JACKSONVILLE              FL   TORNADO
05/07/99   DUVAL                          REPORTED BY HAM OPERATOR
                                          TOUCHED DOWN NEAR NEW
                                          BERLEN ROAD

0210 PM                              FL   1.25 INCH HAIL
05/07/99   MARION                         HAIL REPORTED IN THE CITY
                                          OF FT MCCOY

0215 PM    CITRA                     FL   1.25 INCH HAIL
05/07/99   MARION

0220 PM    PEDRO                     FL   .75 INCH HAIL
05/07/99   MARION