Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
220 PM CDT WED MAY 5 1999

MODELS OVERALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT NEXT 48 HRS AS THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER FAR SE SD CREEPS NE INTO N WI BY 12Z/FRI. ACCOMPANING
985 MB SURFACE LOW TO SLOWLY WEAKEN NE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRI WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT IN FAR W IL/SE IL TO
PULL INTO FAR E IL BY 12Z/FRI THEN PASS E OF THE STATE BY MID MORNING.

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS...AMOUNT OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ALONG WITH SLIGHT SEVERE RISK TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SE IL AS
ONE SHORT WAVE ROTATES NE ACROSS SE IL/INDIANA TONIGHT. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE THEN PUNCHES THROUGH IL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AROUND 18Z FRI.
THEN NEED TO ADDRESS AMOUNT OF COOLING BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THIS WORK
WEEK AND PROLONGED CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DEPARTING
SLOWLY N TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR/CANADA.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN S IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SVR CELL NEAR MT VERNON HEADING NE TOWARD CLAY CO. WHERE CAPES NEAR 3000
J/KG. STRONG CAPE OVER CENTRAL IL MAINING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...WARM...
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS SO FAR...BUT CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS SE OF I-70 THIS EVENING AS
FRONT AND SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE WITH LIKELY CHANCE EASTCENTRAL BY DAN/CMI. BEST
INSTABILITY TO AFFECT LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS TONIGHT WHERE MODERATE-HIGH
RISK OF SVR WX BUT SE HALF OF IL REMAINS IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK
WHERE CAPES RUN 2000-3000 J/KG AND LI FROM MINUS 4-8C.

SE IL RECEIVED 0.75-1.00 INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY GET
THIS MUCH AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS BY LWV. BY CONTRAST
ONLY TENTH-QUARTER INCH FROM PIA NW TO GBG. WILL AGAIN SHY AWAY FROM
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AS STORMS FAIRLY QUICK MOVERS NE AT 30 KTS. FFG
FOR SE IL RANGE FROM 0.6-1.3/ 1 HR...1.1-1.9/ 3 HR AND 1.6-2.5/ 6 HR.

LIKELY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FAR E IL EARLY THU
MORNING UNTIL FRONT CLEARS E OF STATE. THEN LIKELY CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS N CWA WITH 40-50 POPS S AS NEXT STRONG
SHORT WAVE ROTATES THRU AND BEST MOISTURE FOUND. FAR ESE CWA GETS A BIT
OF A DRY WEDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON THU SO TO SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN.

LEANED BETWEEN HIGHER FAN AND LOWER FWC POPS NEXT 48 HRS KEEPING AT
LEAST PROB30-40 CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THU NIGHT/FRI ESPECIALLY N CWA.
FWC/FAN TEMPS CLOSE EXCEPT FWC 5-7 WARMER THAN FAN THU. LEANED WITH
COOLER FAN NW CWA AND WARMER FWC SE WHERE MORE SUNSHINE POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON. THOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS PAST 2 DAYS...EXPECT BREEZY
CONDITIONS THU/FRI AS S WINDS SHIFT SW OVERNIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING.

PRELIMINARY CODED CITY FORECAST FOR COORDINATION...

SPI 055/065 050/065 049  55343
PIA 054/064 049/064 047  56443
DEC 056/066 050/064 049  65443
CMI 057/066 051/063 048  76443
MTO 058/068 052/066 050  85332
LWV 061/070 053/068 051  96332

HUETTL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
130 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 1999

STRONG OMEGA BLOCK TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THIS AFTN/TONIGHT AS IT SHIFTS
E. 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE MORE AGRESSIVE WITH PACIFIC ENERGY BRINGING MORE
CLOUDS AND BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MON/TUE. ETA STILL THE
DRIEST SCENERIO BUT AVN/NGM MORE IN SYNC AND WILL LEAN IN THIS
DIRECTION. FAN/FWC TEMPS 1-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST RUN NEXT 48 HRS.

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER POPS SHOULD BE INSERTED INTO
MONDAY/S FORECAST...TIMING OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND AFFECTS ON
TEMPS.

CLEAR SKIES EARLY TONIGHT TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT FROM W-E AND
CONTINUE MON AS SHORT WAVE OVER FAR NE CO SHEARS NE INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/W MN BY 12Z/MON THEN DEPARTS INTO CANADA LATE MON. STILL DRY SE
IL THRU TUE MORNING BUT WOULD INTRODUCE A 30/40 POP OF A SHOWER NW OF
I-57 MON AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM W OF
SPI/PIA WHERE BEST DYNAMICS NICK ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD.

SMALL POP OF A SHOWER MONDAY NIGHT AS SHORT WAVE DEPARTS WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THETA-E RIDGE FROM E TX N TO MN. MUCH STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER AK AND THE CANADIAN W COAST TO DIG INTO THE
ROCKIES THRU TUE WITH AVN SHOWING IT EVOLVING INTO A STRONG NEGATIVE
TITLED TROUGH LIFTING INTO IL BY 12Z/WED. AMPLE GULF MOISTURE LIFTING N
AHEAD OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT POISED JUST W OF IL BY 12Z/WED WITH 988 MB
SURFACE LOW OVER UPPER MS VALLEY AND H85 JET INCREASING TO 45-50KTS.
LIKELY CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS W OF SPI/PIA TUE AFTERNOON AND
STATEWIDE TUE NIGHT AND A FEW COULD BE SEVERE.

FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TEMPS NEXT 48 HRS AS FAN ONLY 0-3 DEGREES MILDER THAN
FWC.

PRELIMINARY CODED CITY FORECAST FOR COORDINATION...

SPI EW 055/077 058/075 056 14357
PIA EW 055/077 058/075 055 14357
DEC EE 053/077 057/076 056 03246
CMI BE 051/080 056/077 057 02245
MTO BE 051/078 056/078 058 02235
LWV BE 050/079 057/079 060 02134

HUETTL

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