Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
215 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS ONCE AGAIN THE POSSIBILITY
AND AREAL EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. STATIONARY FRONT FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO SW IA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENT/SE IL. WITH
FRONT REMAINING TO THE WEST...THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE
DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT THIS TIME OF DAY...BUT GOING BACK
SEVERAL MSAS ANALYSES POINTS TO ONE THAT MAY BE LURKING IN
SRN PARTS OF ILX CWA BTWN HUF/LWV TO ABOUT MVN. COULD BE
ANOTHER IN WCENT IL AS INDICATED BY DIFFERENCE IN LOWEST GATE
WINDS BETWEEN ILX VWP AND WINCHESTER PROFILER.

MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH LI/S AROUND -4 AND CAPES 1500-2000
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL INTERACT WITH LINGERING BOUNDARIES
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS 50 PERCENT POPS...BUT WILL SCALE THESE BACK A BIT IN CENT/SE
IL TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH EXPECTED TRENDS AND NEIGHBORING ZONES.

ETA MODEL ALSO SEEMS TO PICK UP ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
FROM ERN KS TO XTRM NW ARK...ACCORDING TO PROFILERS AND WATER
VAPOR LOOP. THIS WEAK UPPER SUPPORT MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME OF THE SCATTERED PULSE STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG/SEVERE
WINDS IN WCENT IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK. HIGH VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.50 INCHES AND
SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR INDIVIDUAL STORMS CLOSELY FOR FLASH FLOODING
...BUT NO HEADLINES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

FWC/FAN TEMPS CLOSE BUT WILL TWEAK UPWARD A BIT FOR THE SAKE
OF PERSISTANCE AND CONSISTENCY.

PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS...

SPI BB 90/68 87/67 86 23445
PIA BB 89/67 86/67 85 23545
DEC BB 90/68 87/67 86 23445
CMI BB 90/68 88/67 87 23445
MTO BB 91/69 88/68 87 23445
LWV BB 92/70 89/70 88 23445

MILLER

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-111700-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
600 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999

WARM AND HUMID AIR IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG AND WEST OF
THE ILLINOIS RIVER. AS A RESULT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY
BE NEEDED.

THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS CAN EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED IN THESE AREAS.

MILLER

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-111700-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
600 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999

WARM AND HUMID AIR IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG AND WEST OF
THE ILLINOIS RIVER. AS A RESULT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY
BE NEEDED.

THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS CAN EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED IN THESE AREAS.

MILLER