Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
230 PM EDT WED JUL 21 1999

LINE OF TSTMS HAS DVLPD THIS ACRS FAR NRN PORTIONS OF FA ALG BNDRY
FM ERLYR MCS. MEANWHILE..SCT TSTMS BEGINNING TO POP TO THE S OF BNDRY
ACRS NRN/ERN PORTIONS OF FA. THIS AREA VERY UNSTBL WITH CAPES IN
EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. SOME MID LVL WRMG WORKING INTO SW PORTIONS OF FA
AND THIS HELPING TO KP THINGS A LTL MORE CAPPED ACRS CVG AREA. STILL
THO...TUF TO RULE OUT A FEW TSTMS DVLPG ACRS THIS AREA SO WL HANG ON
TO A 20 OR 30 POP THERE FOR THIS EVENG. OTHRWS...WL CONT WITH CHC
POPS WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE NE. WITH NWLY FLOW CONTG ALF...MAY SEE
SOME ACTVTY SKIRT ACRS NE PORTIONS OF FA THRU THE OVRNGT HRS SO WL
NOT INDICT ANY TIMING THERE. OTRWS...PLAN ON GOING WITH MAINLY EVNG
WORDING. HI PWS IN PLACE SO MAIN THREAT LUKS TO BE HVY RAIN BUT WK
SPD AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALSO PRESENT SO AN ISOLTD SVR WND GUST OR
TWO PSBL THRU ERLY EVNG.

RDG CONTS TO BLD SLOWLY IN ACRS AREA THRU THE END OF THE WK.  SHUD
BE UNSTBL AGN ON THURS BUT WITH CONTD MID LVL WRMG...CAP SHUD BE A
LTL STGR THAN TDA. BEST CHC FOR ANY TSTMS WL BE ACRS FAR N/NE WHR
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME WK LLVL CONV THRU THURS AFTN. FOR
NOW...PLAN ON MAINTAINING A DRY FCST BUT SOME ISLTD TSTMS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.

LLVL THCKNS ON THE RISE NXT CPL OF DAYS SO WRMR FWC TMPS IN LOW TO
MID 90S LUK PRETTY CLOSE FOR HIGHS. WITH JUICY AMS IN PLACE...WL GO
A LTL WRMR THAN FWC FOR LOWS NXT CPL NGTS.

.ILN...NONE.

LOTT