Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
325 PM EDT SUN OCT 17 1999

IR SAT SHOWS SOME DRY SLOTTING ENTRAINED INTO THE ERN AND NRN
PERIPHERY OF IRENE. IT APPEARS THIS MAY GIVE THE OUTER BANKS AND FAR
NE ZNS A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM CONTINUOUS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS AT
LEAST INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...IRENE SEEMS TO BE REFUELING DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE NW-NE QUADRANTS AS EVIDENCED BY CLOUD TOP TEMPS.
ANTICIPATION OF THIS CORE TRANSLATING NWD TONIGHT HAS PROMPTED A FFW
FOR MOST OF ERN NC EXCEPT OTR BNKS...AS FLOODING SEEMS IMMINENT WITH
THE SODDENED GROUNDS. 88-D PCPN ESTMTS SINCE 12Z THIS MORNING REVEAL
SOME AREAS HAVE RCVD 3 INCHES. MANY CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE POISED TO
SWELL AND RUN TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL PCPN.

THOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE PLACEMENT OF IRENE BY 12Z
MON...THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT SHE WILL RAPIDLY ACCELERATE THROUGH
THE NC LATITUDES WHILE PARALLELING THE COAST...NGM IS PREFERRED AS
IT HAS HISTORICALLY KEPT PACE WITH IRENE. ANOTHER AREA OF CONSENSUS
IS HOW QUICKLY THE SIG MEAN RH PULLS OFFSHORE. LOOKS LIKE DECREASING
CLOUDS MON AFTN...LINGERING WRAP ARND OTR BNKS.

CWF: LATEST OB AT FSPN7 20 FEET PK WND 52 KTS. CNTR OF CIRC STILL
ARND 100 NM SW OF THIS BUOY. WILL GO 20 TO 24 FEET FROM SURF CITY TO
HAT TON...WINDS TO 65 KT AND HIGHER GUSTS. A LTL LOWER ON SEAS FROM
HAT NWD AS SOME PORTION OF S SWELL BLOCKED BY CAPE HAT BARRIER
ISLANDS SO WILL GO 16 TO 20 FT AS IRENE PULLS E AND N OF NRN CSTL
WATERS.

.MHX...HURRICANE WARNING FRM HAT S AND PAMLICO SND.
       TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF HAT AND ALB SND.
       TORNADO WATCH ALL ZONES UNTIL 11 PM.
       FLASH FLOOD WARNING ALL ZNS XCEPT OUTER BANKS UNTIL 2 AM.
       HIGH WIND WARNING FOR CSTL PLNS.

COLBY

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ024-032>034-039-046-172115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
418 PM EDT SUN OCT 17 1999

...TORNADO WATCH 702 HAS BEEN CANCELED...

AS HURRICANE IRENE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...
THE THREAT OF TORNADOES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED TO THE
NORTH. THUS THE TORNADO WATCH WHICH WAS ISSUED LATE THIS MORNING HAS
BEEN CANCELED.

ALTHOUGH THE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT... ISOLATED WEAK
TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM
PASSES NEARBY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

LGE

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ024-032>034-039-046-172115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
418 PM EDT SUN OCT 17 1999

...TORNADO WATCH 702 HAS BEEN CANCELED...

AS HURRICANE IRENE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...
THE THREAT OF TORNADOES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED TO THE
NORTH. THUS THE TORNADO WATCH WHICH WAS ISSUED LATE THIS MORNING HAS
BEEN CANCELED.

ALTHOUGH THE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT... ISOLATED WEAK
TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM
PASSES NEARBY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

LGE