Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
305 AM EDT MON AUG 30 1999

APPEARS THAT DENNIS IS MAKING THE MUCH ANTICIPATED TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS GETTING STEERED BY AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE NE US. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFTING
OUT AS THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW ON THE EAST SIDE. THIS SUPPORTS
THE MODEL TRENDS OF BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER DENNIS BY TUE AND
SLOWING IT'S MOVEMENT OFF THE NC COAST. THIS COULD PROLONG THE
COASTAL FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE OUTER BANKS...EVEN WITH THE STORM
WELL OFF THE COAST.

NOW THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF DENNIS WILL BE WELL
OFFSHORE...THINK HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HRS. FURTHER INLAND...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL FORCE WINDS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY AND WILL
LIKELY OCCUR IN GUSTS AS WELL. (THANKS TO AKQ FOR COORD ON THIS).
WILL NUDGE WIND SPEEDS DOWN A BIT ALL ZONES. RAIN SHOULD RAPIDLY END
MOST LOCATIONS BY 00Z...EXCEPT FOR OUTER BANKS. LOW STALLED OFF THE
COAST AND MEAN RH NEAR 70% WILL KEEP CLOUDS/WIND IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUE.

CWF: WILL TWEAK AFT HURRICANE HOTLINE BUT PLAN ON KEEPING HEADLINES
AS IS.

.MHX...HURRICANE WARN OREGON INLET S INCLUDING PAM SND.
...TROP STORM WARN N OF OREGON INLET AND ALBEMARLE SND.
...HIGH WND WARN LATE TNT THRU MON DUPLIN/JONES/LENOIR/PITT/GREENE/
   MARTIN.

ELARDO