Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
303 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 1999

CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THE CONCERN IN THE SHORTER TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES BEYOND.  SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
WORKING NORTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA WITH COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO BISECT
CWA.  WARM AND QUITE MUGGY CONDITIONS EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SFC AND LOWEST LEVEL PROFILER WINDS HAVE
BEEN VEERING MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  GREATEST
INSTABILITY CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SWD INTO
OKLAHOMA. LAPS AND 18Z SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT CAP
ACROSS THE REGION BUT THIS IS BEING WHITTLED AWAY ESPECIALLY TO THE
WEST.  BEST LLVL CONVERGENCE EXISTS OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA.  CURRENT FORECAST OF TSTMS OVERNIGHT OVER
LOOKS GOOD AND WILL KEEP BETTER CHANCE GOING S CENTRAL AND SERN
ZONES.

MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT IS QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND
PREFER FASTER ETA/AVN SOLNS.  ETA ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE
ON INITIAL FEATURES AT 12Z.  FRONT SHOULD BE INTO SERN KANSAS BY 12Z
MONDAY AND PRECIP WILL LINGER LONGER THERE.  SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT THROUGH 48 HOURS AND ALSO PREFER QUICKER
RETREAT OF MOISTURE SUGGESTED BY ETA/AVN.

TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND
QUICK SHOT OF COOL AIR ALOFT ALTHOUGH WILL STILL TEND WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER FAN NUMBERS.

IN THE EXTENDED...SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
NOGAPS TAKES NEXT UPPER SYSTEM OFF TO THE NORTH AND BUILDS UPPER
RIDGE INTO SRN/CNTRL PLAINS WHILE MRF TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN APPROACH
AND SPREADS PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL KEEP EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW.

FCSTID = 16
ICT   65  74  50  81 /  50  30  10  10
HUT   64  73  49  80 /  50  30  10  10
EWK   63  73  49  81 /  50  30  10  10
EQA   64  74  49  81 /  50  30  10  10
WLD   65  75  51  82 /  50  30  10  10
RSL   59  68  47  79 /  40  30  10  10
GBD   59  68  47  79 /  40  30  10  10
SLN   61  70  48  80 /  50  30  10  10
MPR   60  70  48  80 /  50  30  10  10
CFV   67  75  52  76 /  50  60  10  10
CNU   67  75  51  75 /  50  60  10  10
K88   66  74  50  75 /  50  60  10  10

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-O67>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-170000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
645 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 1999

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA IS ACTIVATING OUR
SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK.

A SKYWARN OPERATOR IS MONITORING AREA NETWORKS.

THE PRIMARY SKYWARN FREQUENCY IS 146.94 MHZ.

SECONDARY FREQUENCIES ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED ON 146.82 AND 145.13 MHZ.

MRU