Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
320 PM CDT MON MAY 10 1999

GREATEST CONCERN TO ADDRESS FOR THIS FORECAST WAS AGAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
OF UPPER AIR AND SFC FEATURES THROUGH 48 HRS. GENERALLY LEANED
TOWARD ETA SOLUTION DUE TO IT/S SUPERIOR HANDLING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EXPECT TWO AREAS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST WILL BE SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA WHERE THE DRYLINE AND FRONT CONVERGE AND LAPS DATA SHOWS
CAPES ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AT 17Z. SECOND AREA OF PCPN
WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS.
WITH REGION COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RR QUAD OF 250 MB JET
ISOLATED SVR STORMS POSSIBLE.

MODELS AGREE THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR TSRA TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER
NOT SURE HOW WELL INSTABILITY WILL RECOVER WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER THUS EXPECT SVR POTENTIAL TO LESSEN. TO THE WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH ISENTROPIC DECENT IS FORECAST...THIS AREA IS STILL
TO THE EAST OF MAIN UPPER TROF SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
IN. WITH 85H THERMAL TROF TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TEMPS SHOULD BE
COOLER THAN MONDAY/S HIGHS.

LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREAS TUESDAY
NIGHT. STILL MAY BE SOME LINGERING PCPN IN SOUTHEAST ZONES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR PRECIP HERE EARLY.

AVN SHOWS LOW LEVEL RIDGE SLIDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH
THERMAL TROF STILL IN PLACE...DON/T EXPECT A BIG WARM AND WILL LOWER
TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FCSTID = 12/HYSELL
ICT   61  75  53  74 /  40  30  10   5
HUT   60  75  51  74 /  40  30  10   5
EWK   61  75  53  74 /  40  30  10   5
EQA   62  75  53  74 /  30  40  30   5
WLD   62  75  53  74 /  30  40  30   5
RSL   55  70  47  75 /  40  20   5   5
GBD   55  70  47  75 /  40  20   5   5
SLN   60  74  50  73 /  40  20   5   5
MPR   60  74  50  74 /  40  20   5   5
CFV   63  75  57  74 /  30  60  40  10
CNU   63  75  57  74 /  30  60  40  10
K88   63  75  57  74 /  30  60  40  10

.ICT...NONE.