Severe Thunderstorm Warning 219, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
258 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 1999

SEVERAL CONCERNS TO ADDRESS FOR THIS FORECAST. FIRST...IS TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT. SECOND...IS PRECIP CHANCES...AND THIRD IS TEMPS.
WATER VAPOR SAT PIX/UA ANALYSIS INDICATES POWERFUL UPPER JET DIGGING
INTO THE NW USA HELPING TO DIG UPPER TROF. MEANWHILE AT THE
SFC...18Z SFC MAP INDICATES FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST OF OF SLN TO
JUST NORTH OF HUT. FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW ESE PROGRESS AND
WITH PRESSURE RISES STILL FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT THIS SLOW SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE. ETA BEST HANDLED FORECAST POSITION OF THE
FRONT AT 18Z...THUS WAS MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY.

LAPS DATA SHOWS PLENTY OF CIN STILL NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME FOR TSRA TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH MODELS SHOWING MID LVL
COOLING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING STILL EXPECT A LINE OF TSRA TO
FORM ALONG THE FRONT. UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES NICELY TOWARD
06Z...SO EXPECT PCPN TO CONTINUE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER
SUNSET. ALSO...ETA 70H OMEGA FIELDS SUGGEST LIFT WILL OCCUR IN FRONT
AND BEHIND SFC FRONT. WITH 310/315/320K ISENTROPIC  SFC/S SHOWING
GOOD LIFT BEHIND BOUNDARY THIS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. ETA/AVN SUGGESTS
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR CWA BY 12Z MONDAY...BUT WITH NE FLOW BEHIND
BOUNDARY...VERY DRY AIR SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THUS WILL INCREASE LOWS FROM PREVIOUS FCST BUT WILL STILL LEAN TWD
COOLER FAN NUMBERS.

WILL KEEP MENTION OF RAIN IN FORECAST FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ZIP THROUGH FAST MID LEVEL
FLOW AND ETA KEEPS LIFT PER 70H OMEGA FIELDS IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN SRN KS WHERE ISENTROPIC
LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ARE GREATEST. WITH 85H TEMPS PLUNGING MONDAY
AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/PCPN FEEL THERE WILL LITTLE RECOVERY IN
TEMPS.  SOME TEMPORARY DRYING MAY WORK INTO NRN ZONES MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FOR TUESDAY CLOUDS/PCPN
SHOULD RETURN.

COORD W/DDC

FCSTID = 12/HYSELL
ICT   58  64  49  62 /  60  50  40  40
HUT   55  62  48  62 /  60  50  40  40
EWK   58  62  49  62 /  60  50  40  40
EQA   58  64  49  62 /  60  50  40  40
WLD   58  65  49  62 /  60  50  40  40
RSL   48  55  46  61 /  40  40  30  40
GBD   48  55  46  61 /  40  40  30  40
SLN   50  57  46  62 /  50  40  20  40
MPR   50  57  46  62 /  50  40  20  40
CFV   61  68  49  64 /  50  50  40  40
CNU   61  68  49  64 /  50  50  40  40
K88   61  68  49  64 /  50  50  40  40

.ICT...NONE.