Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
244 AM CDT MON APR 5 1999

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING. LINE SHOULD BE THOUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL KS BEFORE SUNRISE...
SO WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BREAK THE TODAY PERIOD UP INTO A "THIS
MORNING AND AFTN" WORDING. WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND ADD THE "SOME MAY
BE SEVERE" WORDING TO SE KS GROUPINGS. ALTHOUGH LINE WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...UPPER LVL COLD COOL WILL NOT SLIDE
THROUGH UNTIL LATER THIS AFTN SO WILL CONTINUE A SMALL POP INTO THE
AFTN HOURS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO THE COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT.

MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH
KS...AS WELL AS THE FINAL SYSTEM IN OUR TRILOGY OF STORMS SINCE LAST
FRIDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES EXPECTED.

LOW IS PROGD TO BE IN IA BY 06Z TONIGHT...CHC OF LINGERING PCPN IN
CENTRAL KS SEEMS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT SO WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE
THEM FOR TONIGHT. DRIER AIR AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD CLEAR SKIES
NICELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS OK
AND SOME UPPER LVL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR SUNNY SKIES ON TUE. FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS...MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BE RETURNING A LITTLE TOO FAST...ALTHOUGH SOUTH WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING (AT THE SFC AS WELL AS 850MB) IN RESPONSE TO THE
STRENGTHENING LEE SIDE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP US FROM COMPLETELY
BOTTOMING OUT. ON WEDNESDAY...ITS DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN...CLDS
INCREASE DURING THE AFTN AND ANOTHER CHC OF TSRA LATE WED NIGHT AS
THE FINAL STORM SYSTEM (CURRENTLY COMING DOWN THE WEST COAST) MOVES
OUT INTO THE PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY.

NOONAN
ICT   65  42  70  46 /  40   5   0   5
HUT   65  42  70  46 /  40   5   0   5
EWK   65  42  70  46 /  40   5   0   5
EQA   65  42  70  46 /  40   5   0   5
WLD   65  42  70  46 /  40   5   0   5
RSL   60  36  68  40 /  40  10   0   5
GBD   60  36  68  40 /  40  10   0   5
SLN   61  38  68  45 /  40  10   0   5
MPR   61  38  68  45 /  40  10   0   5
CFV   68  43  68  46 /  80   5   0   5
CNU   68  43  68  46 /  80   5   0   5
K88   68  43  68  46 /  80   5   0   5

.ICT...NONE.

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