Severe Thunderstorm Warning 158, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
311 PM CDT FRI JUL 9 1999

MAIN FCST PROBLEM IS PRECIP CHCS OVERNIGHT. ALL MODELS SIMILAR
THROUGH 48 HRS. COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER
EXPECT IT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. EXPECT IT TO MAKE IT ALL THE
WAY THROUGH FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. CEN SECTIONS SHOULD SEE THE
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL HAVE
PRECIP LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTH. THINK THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
12Z SAT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH EXTENDED. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE
DRY FCST FROM SAT ON INTO THE EXTENDED.

TEMPS ARE ANOTHER PROBLEM. CONDITIONS ARE COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
BEHIND THE FRONT. SO HOW COOL SHOULD I GO THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MOS
GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE FOR LOWS BUT CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR
AND AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED...WILL GO A LITTLE WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPS. EXTENDED FCST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 90 TO 95 RANGE WITH LOWS
AROUND 70.

FCSTID = 7/NR
ICT   66  85  63  88 /  50   5   0   0
HUT   64  85  62  87 /  50   0   0   0
EWK   64  85  62  87 /  50   0   0   0
EQA   66  85  63  88 /  50   5   0   0
WLD   67  84  63  89 /  50  10   0   0
RSL   62  83  59  86 /  60   0   0   0
GBD   63  84  60  86 /  60   0   0   0
SLN   64  83  60  85 /  60   0   0   0
MPR   64  84  61  86 /  60   0   0   0
CFV   67  84  63  88 /  60  20   0   0
CNU   66  85  63  87 /  60  10   0   0
K88   66  85  62  86 /  60  10   0   0

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-100000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1045 AM CDT FRI JUL 9 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

RUSSELL     LINCOLN     SALINE     MARION
BARTON      ELLSWORTH   MCPHERSON  CHASE
RICE        RENO        HARVEY     BUTLER
KINGMAN     SEDGWICK    COWLEY     HARPER
SUMNER

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

GREENWOOD   WOODSON     ALLEN
ELK         WILSON      NEOSHO
CHAUTAUQUA  MONTGOMERY  LABETTE

AT MID MORNING...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WARM AND HUMID AIR EXISTS AND
AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

BECAUSE WINDS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
RELATIVELY WEAK...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE UNSTABLE AIR...ISOLATED STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE TO DIMES AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH.
HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE STORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...THEN
IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.

HYSELL