Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
247 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 1999

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINS TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...THEN PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS.
PREFERRED THE ETA MODEL AS NGM/AVN LIFTS SFC FRONT NORTH TOO QUICKLY
CONSIDERING ONGOING AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED.

18Z SFC MAP INDICATED SFC BOUNDARY WILL STILL JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH PRESSURE RISES STILL INDICATED BEHIND FRONT...
EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT AREA OF PCPN ON KICT 88D IN AREA
WHERE PROFILERS SHOW GOOD 30H DIFFLUENCE AND ETA KEEPS THIS UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IN CENTRAL KS THROUGH 12Z SAT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT PCPN
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES AND WATER VAPOR SAT PIX INDICATING A GOOD FEED OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO KS...WILL CONTINUE HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN ZONES
FOR CENTRAL/SC KS. GUIDANCE TEMPS AND PREVIOUS FCST LOWS LOOK ON
TARGET.

ETA BEGINS TO SHIFT SFC BOUNDARY NORTH INTO NRN KS AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS LATE SATURDAY. WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE STILL NOTED IN CENTRAL
ZONES AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E CONVERGENCE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCT POPS
IN PLACE. FEEL BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE IN CENTRAL KS WHICH IS
CLOSER TO FORECAST FRONTAL POSITION...BUT WILL KEEP LOWER POPS IN
SC/SE KS DUE TO ANY PCPN THAT MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z SAT. CONSIDERING
NGM PUSHES THIS BOUNDARY TOO FAR NORTH AND ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...
WILL UNDERCUT FWC NUMBERS FOR HIGHS SATURDAY.

PERHAPS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST WAS DETERMINING
CHANCE FOR PCPN SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. FEEL BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE NOSE OF 85H JET IS
EXPECTED AND BEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE SHIFTS. HOWEVER...WITH ETA
HINTING AT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP SMALL POPS GOING SAT NIGHT.
AS MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND FRONT CONTINUES ITS
NORTHWARD MARCH...FEEL LESS CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
ON TAP FOR SUNDAY.

ECMF CONTINUES TO BUILD 5H RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SO WILL KEEP
DRY FORECAST GOING AND GRADUALLY WARM TEMPS.

FCSTID = 12/HYSELL
ICT   71  87  69  92 /  40  40  20  10
HUT   70  87  68  92 /  40  40  20  10
EWK   71  87  69  92 /  40  40  20  10
EQA   71  87  69  92 /  40  40  20  10
WLD   71  88  69  93 /  40  40  20  10
RSL   69  84  67  93 /  60  40  30  10
GBD   69  84  67  93 /  60  40  30  10
SLN   71  85  68  92 /  60  40  30  10
MPR   71  85  68  92 /  60  40  30  10
CFV   71  91  70  92 /  30  30  20  10
CNU   71  90  70  91 /  30  30  20  10
K88   71  90  70  91 /  30  30  20  10

.ICT...NONE.