Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
153 AM CDT THU JUL 01 1999

I WILL KEEP IT SHORT AND SWEET DUE TO THE WEATHER.

MAIN PROBELM WILL BE HOW LONG TO HOLD ONTO THE POPS TODAY AND HOW
HOT WILL IT GET LATER IN THE PERIOD.

03Z SURFACE CHART SHOWED LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NEAR GCK...DDC...EMP...TO
MKC.  WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A WEAK FORCING MECHANISM PRESENT
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE.  I EXPECT THE
PRECIPITAITON TO DEVELOP MORE INTO AN MCS TYPE SCENARIO CLOSER TO
SUNRISE...SO POPS WILL BE KEPT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  THE WEAK
BOUNDARY THEN DROPS SOUTH AND STRETCHES FROM NEAR ICT TO MKC BY
F18.  THIS WOULD PUT THE PRIME AREA OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...SO CHANCE POPS WILL BE KEPT THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING.  I AM STILL ON THE FENCE HERE IN SC KANSAS FOR THE EVENING HOURS
...SO I WILL DECIDE BY ISSUANCE TIME.  IF I DO KEEP THE POPS...THEY
WILL BE SLIM.  CENTRAL SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH DRYING NORTH FLOW.  THE BOUNDARY THEN SINKS INTO
OKLAHOMA BY F30 AND SOON WASHES OUT AND ALLOWS GOOD RETURN FLOW ON
FRIDAY. I WOULD THINK A BIG ENOUGH CAP WILL BE IN PLACE...SO I WILL
DROP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME

THE FWC VALUES LOOK REASONABLE WITH GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H8
THORUGH F48.

NUMBERS TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.

CHANCE

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ067>069-082-083-091>093-011444-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
915 AM CDT THU JUL 1 1999

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502 THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EXCEPT FOR MARION AND CHASE COUNTIES HAS
BEEN CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR BUTLER...COWLEY...HARPER...HARVEY...KINGMAN...RENO...SEDGWICK...
AND SUMNER COUNTIES HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED...SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502 HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

FINCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
918 AM CDT THU JUL 1 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0850 AM    NIOTAZE                   KS   60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/01/99   CHAUTAUQUA                     REPORTED BY AGTAP OBSERVER

0903 AM    COFFEYVILLE ARPT          KS   58 MPH TSTM GUST
07/01/99   MONTGOMERY                     ASOS OBSERVATION

NOONAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
918 AM CDT THU JUL 1 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0850 AM    NIOTAZE                   KS   60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/01/99   CHAUTAUQUA                     REPORTED BY AGTAP OBSERVER

0903 AM    COFFEYVILLE ARPT          KS   58 MPH TSTM GUST
07/01/99   MONTGOMERY                     ASOS OBSERVATION

NOONAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1003 AM CDT THU JUL 1 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0838 AM    2 NE ELGIN                KS   60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/01/99   CHAUTAUQUA                     REPORTED BY AGTAP OBSERVER

0840 AM    PERU                      KS   60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/01/99   CHAUTAUQUA                     REPORTED BY AGTAP OBSERVER

0858 AM    INDEPENDENCE              KS   WIND DAMAGE
07/01/99   MONTGOMERY                     TREES AND LIMBS DOWN THROUGHOUT TOWN

0908 AM    EDNA                      KS   60  MPH TSTM GUST
07/01/99   LABETTE                        REPORTED BY AGTAP OBSERVER

NOONAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1003 AM CDT THU JUL 1 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0838 AM    2 NE ELGIN                KS   60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/01/99   CHAUTAUQUA                     REPORTED BY AGTAP OBSERVER

0840 AM    PERU                      KS   60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/01/99   CHAUTAUQUA                     REPORTED BY AGTAP OBSERVER

0858 AM    INDEPENDENCE              KS   WIND DAMAGE
07/01/99   MONTGOMERY                     TREES AND LIMBS DOWN THROUGHOUT TOWN

0908 AM    EDNA                      KS   60  MPH TSTM GUST
07/01/99   LABETTE                        REPORTED BY AGTAP OBSERVER

NOONAN

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