Tornado Warning 6, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
305 PM CST FRI JAN 1 1999

SEVERE TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE CWA. AT LEAST 3 TORNADOES HAVE TOUCHED DOWN IN THE
RIVERSIDE/DODGE AREA...WITH NUMEROUS OTHER CONFIRMED FUNNEL CLOUDS
FROM DIFFERENT STORMS. THESE ARE LOW-TOPPED/SHALLOW SUPERCELLS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL FOCUSED NEAR THE E-W WARM FRONT BOUNDARY.

THE 12Z MODELS STILL HAVE DISAGREEMENTS AND ALL HAVE TROUBLE
DEPICTING THE SITUATION PROPERLY SINCE MANY OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE
EXPLOSIVELY COMING TOGETHER RIGHT OVER THE AREA. STILL EXPECT A
SQUALL LINE TO SWEEP MOST OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST
COURSE OF ACTION SEEMS TO KEEP CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MINOR
MODIFICATIONS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

.HGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT.
       SCA TONIGHT AND SAT.

31/47/44

PRELIMS...
CLL BU 050/052 028/048 025 910
IAH BU 062/063 030/050 027 920
GLS BU 066/066 041/050 035 920

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-020000-

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1207 PM CST FRI JAN 1 1999

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL COMBINE
WITH THE FRONT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM
HUNTSVILLE TO SEALY TO BAY CITY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...ANY PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS URBAN FLOODING.
PEOPLE ALONG CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR WATER LEVELS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD RIVER LEVELS BEGIN TO RISE.

SPOTTER GROUPS AS WELL AS EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PREPARE
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING.

THIS IS A DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...TV...OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS SOURCE FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS. WEATHER
INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/HGX.

TAYLOR

TXZ163-164-176>179-198>200-020420-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
432 PM CST FRI JAN 1 1999

A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM LIBERTY TO CONROE TO CALDWELL.

THIS TORNADO WATCH WILL INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
LIBERTY... MONTGOMERY... GRIMES... BURLESON... BRAZOS... WALKER...
SAN JACINTO... POLK... TRINITY... HOUSTON... MADISON... .  THE MAJOR
CITIES OF CONROE... NAVASOTA... HUNTSVILLE... GROVETON...
LIVINGSTON... CALDWELL AND BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS GULF MOISTURE SURGES
NORTH THROUGH THE WATCH AREA.  A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TORNADOES...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.  IN ADDITION A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY ENCOURAGE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE MOVING
OUT OF THE HILL COUNTRY THIS EVENING.  ALTHOUGH STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.

REMEMBER...A WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...AND THAT WARNINGS MEAN THAT TORNADOES
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURING.  IF A WARNING IS ISSUED SEEK SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL NEWS SOURCES FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES.  RELAY ANY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO YOUR LOCAL
SHERIFFS OFFICE FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-
235>238-021300-

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
452 PM CST FRI JAN 1 1999

...ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT.  AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.  A SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  SINCE THIS SQUALL
LINE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE
THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS URBAN FLOODING.  PEOPLE ALONG
CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR WATER LEVELS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD RIVER LEVELS BEGIN TO RISE.

SPOTTER GROUPS AS WELL AS EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PREPARE
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING.

THIS IS A DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
OR RELIABLE WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
ISSUANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OR TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEATHER INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/HGX.