Tornado Warning 39, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
545 AM CST SAT APR 3 1999

...UPDATE...WINDS ALONG THE LOWER COAST (PORT OCONNOR AND PALACIOS
AREA) HAVE BEEN STRONGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.  HAVE UPDATED THE
CWFHGX TO REFLECT THESE STRONGER SPEEDS BY SEPARATING MATAGORDA BAY
AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
AND OUT TO 20 NM.  A MWSHOU WAS ALSO ISSUED AT 0942Z TO COVER THIS
SITUATION.

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY.  AIRMASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND
WITH AREA BECOMING INCREASING DIFFLUENT ALOFT WITH A COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE...SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.  EXACT LOCATION OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND EASTWARD EXTENT OF TODAYS ACTIVITY WILL PLAY A
ROLE ON RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT.  WILL DECREASE POPS FURTHER INLAND
WHERE SOME STABILIZATION IS EXPECTED.  BY SUNDAY...ENOUGH TIME IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE ELAPSED FOR STABILIZING EFFECT OF TODAYS STORMS TO
COME TO AN END.  WITH FRONT STILL PARKED JUST TO OUR WEST...ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED FOR ADDITIONAL FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH AREA STILL IN FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE
LOCATION...SOME OF SUNDAYS ACTIVITY MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE SIMILAR TO TODAYS STORMS.  WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING SEVERE IN THIRD PERIOD AT THIS TIME (SPC HAS AREA IN
GENERAL STORMS) AND LET THE DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 03/12Z MODELS.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY ON MONDAY AS FOCUSING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND TOWARD THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER.   EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO GO
BACK DOWN INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SLOWLY DEVELOPS AND EDGES EASTWARD TOWARD OUR
AREA.

LATEST PORTS DATA SUPPORTS POSTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AREAWIDE
TODAY.

THANKS AGAIN TO KEWX AND ADJACENT OFFICES FOR YOUR SUPPORT DURING
LAST NIGHTS SHIFT.

42/47

CLL TE 079/058 076/064 081 42524
IAH TT 080/063 076/067 081 42535
GLS TT 076/069 076/069 077 42545

.HGX...SCA ENTIRE MARINE AREA TODAY.

TXZ163-040000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
100 PM CST SAT APR 3 1999

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR HOUSTON COUNTY...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN SPEEDING EASTWARD. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
BE MOVING INTO A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY...SPAWNING TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN HOUSTON COUNTY AROUND 2 PM.

THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE WATCH AREA EXTENDS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
FAIRFIELD TO NACOGDOCHES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS SOURCES FOR THE LATEST
STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS.