Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
245 PM CST THU FEB 11 1999

THE COLD FRONT HAS MADE PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST 1/3RD OF
THE AREA WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH LFK-UTS-NEAR COLUMBUS.
FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING QUICKLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO AS DEEP NNW FLOW
FOLLOWS.  NW SFC WINDS WILL BE EXCEEDING THE CRITERIA FOR WIND
ADVISORY OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH ETA/AVN/RUC 45-50 KNOTS AT
925 MB...A LARGE PORTION OF THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE DOWNWARD IN
GUSTS.  HAVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FIRE-UP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH THOUGH MAINLY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN THE PREVELANT
PRECIP TO OCCUR SO FAR.  INSTABILITIES REMAIN HIGH UNTIL FROPA WILL
DROP MENTION OF SEVERE IN ZONES.  MAY NEED TO ADD MENTION OF SEVERE
TO COASTAL STORMS.   SFC TEMPS WILL BE TAKING A RAPID PLUNGE...AT
850 AS RIDGE BUILDS IN THE 850 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -4C AT IAH/18Z
FRI AND THEN STEADILY WARM TO AROUND 3C 12Z SAT.  RADIATIONAL
COOLING SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHTER WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN BUT
RAPID WARMUP THROUGH THE DAY.   SO FAR CAN SEE LITTLE REASON TO
ARGUE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH PREVIOUS SFC TEMP PROGS.  DO NOT HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM IN THE QUICK ZONAL FLOW THAT
DEVELOPS AROUND MIDWEEK WILL TONE DOWN THE THURSDAY SYSTEM THE MRF
BRINGS THROUGH.

RECORD HIGHS WERE SET AT IAH AND GLS...SEE RER FOR DETAILS.

.HGX...WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR ALL SETX
       GALE WARNING 0-50NM AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BAYS

45/41/35

PRELIM NUMBERS...
CLL 35 60/32 68/35 0000
IAH 40 62/36 68/37 3000
GLS 49 61/44 67/49 4000

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-GMZ330-335-350-355
-370-375-120500-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1045 AM CST THU FEB 11 1999

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER STILL EXISTS BUT HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
REACHING THE COLLEGE STATION AREA AROUND NOON AND THE HOUSTON AREA
AROUND 4 PM.  A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT
WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. A LAYER
OF WARM AIR AROUND 5000 FEET MAY HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
FURTHER NORTH GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A MADISONVILLE TO
AROUND CONROE TO NEAR LIBERTY THE LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE
WEAKER AND MAY ALLOW THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND MID AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND A STRONG WIND PROFILE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.  AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STRONG
GUSTY AND MUCH COOLER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

THE FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST AROUND 6 PM AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A
NEARLY SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS.  THE THREAT OF STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 11 PM BEFORE THE LINE HAS
EXITED THE UPPER TE,XAS COASTAL WATERS.   NEAR GALE TO GALE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.