Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
213 AM EDT THU MAY 6 1999

INITIAL CONCERNS ARE RECENT TORNADO WATCH BOX JUST ISSUED FOR
NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND NEW SVR TSTM BOX FOR XTRM WRN CAROLINAS
THROUGH PREDAWN. CONVECTION FIRING RAPIDLY AHEAD OF MAIN SQUALL
LINE...ATMOS QUITE JUICY AHEAD OF THESE STORMS AND WITH DIFFLUENT
FLOW IN PLACE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN PLACE...STORMS SHOULD AT LEAST
MAINTAIN THIERR CURRENT INTENSITY TIL LATE IN PREDAWN WHEN THEY MOVE
FAR AHEAD OF UPR SUPPORT.

NGM/ETA ARE QUITE SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF SURFACE FRONT AND
SUGGSTING THAT JUST SLOW EWRD PROGRESS OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
AS UPR LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND ACTUALLY PULL A LITTLE NORTHWARD
THROUGH 00Z SAT. VARIOUS PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PULL AWAY FROM
BASE OF UPR TROUGH...NGM A BIT STRONGER WITH THESE. BOTH AGREE THAT
PIECE PULLING EWRD LATE AFTN AND TNT WILL WEAKEN BUT MOVE OVR STHRN
PART OF CWFA...WITH THETA-E RIDGE IN PLACE OVR REGION AND SOME DVRG
ALF. CAPES SURGE TWRD 1500 J/KG IN EAST BUT THAT WHOLLY DEPENDENT ON
GETTING SOME SUN IN EAST. THINK THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLOUDS ARND
AS YESTERDAY AND WILL KEEP TEMP CLIMBS TO A MINIMUM. TIME SECTIONS
STILL SUGST A GOOD VEERING WIND SIGNATURE OVR MOST OF CWFA AND
WUDNT RULE OUT SVR BUT SPC HAS SLGHT RISK AREA TO OUR WEST TDY.
REGARDLESS...WITH DEEPEST MOISTR OF THE WEEK IN PLACE TDY...WILL GO
CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TDY...WITH LIKELY FOR TNT. NO DOUBT WILL
SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ONGOING THIS EVENG ACROSS TENNESSEE THAT
WILL AFFECT WRN AREAS IN PREDAWN...AND EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF RW/TRW
IN ERN MOST CWFA AT SUNDOWN.

MDLS SUGST FRONT INTO ERN TN BY 00Z SAT...WITH GRDL COOLING OF
TEMPS ALF AS STRONGEST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY YET GETS SHUNTED
NW OF CWFA...BUT STILL SOME IMPRESSIVE DPVA IN PLACE FOR WEST. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE OVR STHRN MOST CWFA...WITH ETA SUGSTNG SOME
BETTER JET DYNAMICS IN PLACE FOR US FRIDAY AFTN. HVR...MOISTR NOT
AS DEEP. IN ANY EVENT...WILL GO WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
FRIDAY. TEMPS...BLO GUIDANCE TDY...NEAR NGM MAXES FRI WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.

AVL TT 070/060 072/058 076 44978
CLT TT 075/062 077/062 079 44876
GSP TT 075/063 078/063 079 44877

.GSP...NONE.

BURRUS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
144 AM EDT THU MAY 06 1999

TIME (EDT) .....CITY LOCATION....... ST   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           .....COUNTY LOCATION.....

141 AM     CLAYTON                   GA   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/06/99   RABUN                          REPORTED BY COUNTY 911.

CSH