Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
345 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 1999

FCST FOCUS IS TSTM CHCS.

TSTMS CURRENTLY FIRING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFTED INDEX
GRADIENT ORIENTED NW-SE FROM AUW-MKE-SBN. DEWPTS ARE IN THE MID 70S WEST
AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH NIGHTTIME L.I.S OF -2 TO -5. ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN SUSTAINING ITSELF OVERNIGHT AND IS WORKING IT/S WAY ACROSS LK
MICHIGAN ATTM...AND SHOULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.

MCS OVER MN SHOULD TURN SEWD AND PROPAGATE ALONG THE LI GRADIENT TOO.
QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL MCS HOLD TOGETHER AND WILL IT MAKE IT INTO LWR
MI THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY THAT IS PRESENT WEST OF HERE AND
THAT IT IS SPREADING THIS WAY...BELIEVE THAT ACTIVITY WILL GET INTO SW
MI AS WELL IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER.

WHILE CURRENT TSTMS ARE LIKELY NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD WEAKEN
LATER THIS MORNING...PSBL MCS OUTFLOW OR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT AND
RETURNING OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BECOME PLAYERS THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO INTERACT WITH AS ETA HAS LI/S TO
MINUS 8 THIS AFTERNOON AND CAPES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG. WILL THEREFORE GO
WITH SCTD TSTM WORDING OVER ALL OF THE FCST AREA TODAY.

ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN QPFS...SFC DEWPTS...AND DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY... THEY STILL SEEM TO IMPLY THAT THE BEST CHC OF TSTMS WILL
BE TNGT.  THETA-E/INSTABILITY RIDGE LEANS INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF APCHG
SFC TROUGH AND MID LVL TROF AXIS PASSES THROUGH.  WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR THE WRN AND NRN AREAS TONIGHT...BUT WILL STICK WITH CHC TYPE
WORDING SE OF GRR.

SFC FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON SAT MORNING AND DRYING TAKES PLACES IN NW
FLOW BEHIND IT.  WILL THEREFORE HAVE CHC TSTMS EARLY THEN MOSUNNY/HOT.
NOT SURE ETA INSTABILTIY IS CORRECT FOR SAT WITH CAPES OVER 4000 AND
LI/S TO -14 AS IT SEEMS TO HOLD SFC DEWPTS TOO HIGH AFTER FROPA.

90 MAY BE TOUGH TO REACH TODAY WITH DEBRIS CLDS AND SCTD TSTMS AROUND.
SEEMS MORE REACHABLE ON SAT.

.GRR...NONE.
MEADE

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MIC035-085-105-133-232000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1030 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 1999

IN MICHIGAN

IN WEST CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN           2 COUNTIES...
LAKE            MASON

IN CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN                2 COUNTIES...
OSCEOLA         CLARE

...AND THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...
MASON