Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
615 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999

...QUICK UPDATE TO DECREASE POP S OF GRR TONIGHT...

RADAR SHOWS VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AT 22Z.  THERE
IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS/SOME MDT TO HVY RAIN IN AN ARC OVER S CNTL LK MI
ASSOC WITH A WAVE ON THE FRONT NEAR SBN.  THEN A MORE GENERAL AREA OF
SHOWERS OVER CNTL LK MI NORTH OF THE PCPN ASSOC WITH THE WAVE.

PRIMARY FRONT AT 22Z EXTENDS FROM NEAR MBS TO NEAR LAN TO NEAR SBN.
WITH IR AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWING JET AND ASSOC SERIES OF SHTWVS
OVER IOWA/NE AREA... EXPECT WAVE NEAR SBN TO BECOME PRIMARY WAVE...
WHICH WILL BE WEST OF FCST TRACK OF ETA/NGM THIS EVENING. EXPECT FOCUS
OF MOST PCPN TO BE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THIS WAVE.

SO... WILL GO WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS (EVEN THOUGH SOME DO NOT LIKE
OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO IMPLY MORE FORCEFULLY IT WILL NOT BE RAINING MOST
OF THE TIME/BUT IT WILL RAIN) OVER THE FROM I-96 NORTH. WILL ONLY HAVE
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM IN THIS AREA SINCE INSTABLITY MOSTLY GONE AND LDS
SHOWING LITTLE ASSOC WITH THIS PCPN AREA NOW.

FOR SRN AREA... WILL HAVE SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WITH 40 PCT POP SINCE COULD
BE REDEVELOPEMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR FRONT AS WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THIS
AREA.

WDM

.GRR...NONE.

WDM