Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
300 PM EST TUE FEB 9 1999

SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS LOOKS TO BE A REAL THREAT FOR SW MI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SQUALL LINE RACES NE OUT OF WI/IL/MO.
LOSS OF LOW CLOUDS HAS DESTABALIZED THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH SFC TEMPS NOW UP NEAR 70 AND DEWPNTS NR 60.  WATCH FROM SPC SEEMS
TO BE A CERTAINTY FOR ALL OF THE FCST AREA AS 100KT MID LVL JET PUNCHES
NEWD AND SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH WI AND DEEPENS.

TEMPS DROP ABRUPTLY WITH FROPA SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES.  THE COLD AIR
QUICKLY UNDERCUTTING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN AN EPISODE OF
FRZG RAIN IN PLACES TO OUR WEST TODAY.  WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN THE
FCST FOR LATER TONIGHT HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING FRZG RAIN FOR TOO LONG
SINCE CAA SHOULD BE DEEPER THAN WHAT IS GOING ON TO THE WEST NOW.

DRY SLOTTING AFFECTS THE FCST AREA ON FRI MORNING SO MAY TAKE UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY TO REALLY GET SOME ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS GOING. ALSO
A LOT OF DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR PRESENT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
INVERSION HEIGHTS ARRIVE ON FRI NGT AND THAT/S WHEN SOME PSBL ACCUMS
WILL BE MENTIONED.

THERMAL TROF MOVES OUT QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY PER AVN MODEL AND
SHOULD BRING A DIMINISHING OR ENDING TREND IN THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

MEADE

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