Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1103 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999

SURFACE PRIMED AND READY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.  MAIN FRONT STILL TO OUR WEST BUT IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING TODAY TO GET TSTMS. INSTABILITY HIGH WITH
12Z LIS RANGING FROM -2 TO -8...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RANGING FROM 125 TO NEARLY 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND WEAK
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN... WET MICROBURST
COULD PRODUCE WINDS INTO THE SEVERE RANGE BUT WILL NOT MENTION
SEVERE IN AFTERNOON ZONES AS HEAVY RAIN WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS THE
MAIN THREAT.  DIFFUSE BOUNDRY FROM CNRL WI TO SW LOWER FOCUSING AN
AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM MUSKEGON TO BENTON HARBOR TO
TOLEDO/ DETROIT TO MUSKEGON... INTERACTING WITH LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON MAY BE OUR TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR TSTM THIS AFTN. WILL
TONE POPS BACK A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOOON TO CHANCE DUE TO SCATTERED
NATURE OF EXPECTED ACTIVITY...  BUT LEAVE REMAINDER OF FORECAST AS
IS.

.GRR...NONE.
HEATHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  GRAND RAPIDS MI
1030 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0830 PM    PAW PAW                   MI   WIND DAMAGE
06/10/99   VAN BUREN                      LIMBS AND POWER LINES DOWN

0300 PM    PEWAMO                    MI   WIND DAMAGE
05/23/99   IONIA                          DAMAGE TO HOUSE... SIDING
                                          BLOWN OFF

MWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  GRAND RAPIDS MI
1030 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0830 PM    PAW PAW                   MI   WIND DAMAGE
06/10/99   VAN BUREN                      LIMBS AND POWER LINES DOWN

0300 PM    PEWAMO                    MI   WIND DAMAGE
05/23/99   IONIA                          DAMAGE TO HOUSE... SIDING
                                          BLOWN OFF

MWH

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-121200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
120 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF
LOWER MICHIGAN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE PASS THIS INFORMATION ALONG TO YOUR EMERGENCY
MANAGERS.

HAZARDS...

AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM SCENARIO IS SETTING UP MUCH
LIKE YESTERDAY. OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE WITH A FEW
SURFACE BASED TRIGGER MECHANISMS TO FIRE UP PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN...HAIL TO A HALF INCH...AND GUSTY
WINDS. THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT
ABOUT 20 MPH.

ADDITIONAL HAZARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS THE HEAT INDEX WHICH WILL
RISE TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW AND MID 90S
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK WILL RESULT IN
VERY UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IF
OUTDOORS.

DISCUSSION...

NUMEROUS PRE EXISTING BOUNDARIES ARE PRESENT THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE INDICES (CAPES TO 3800 IN SOME
AREAS...AND LIS TO -7) POINT TO PULSE TYPE ACTIVITY. INTERACTION OF
BOUNDARIES AND THE PRESENCE OF A LAKE BREEZE MOVING SLOWLY INLAND
WILL PRODUCE STORMS WHERE THE BOUNDARIES INTERSECT. SHEAR PROFILES
DO NOT SUPPORT LONG LIVED STORMS ALTHOUGH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
CELLS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ON A LOCALIZED BASIS THANKS
TO A WEAK FLOW ALOFT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN.

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

GEO

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-121200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
120 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF
LOWER MICHIGAN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE PASS THIS INFORMATION ALONG TO YOUR EMERGENCY
MANAGERS.

HAZARDS...

AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM SCENARIO IS SETTING UP MUCH
LIKE YESTERDAY. OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE WITH A FEW
SURFACE BASED TRIGGER MECHANISMS TO FIRE UP PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN...HAIL TO A HALF INCH...AND GUSTY
WINDS. THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT
ABOUT 20 MPH.

ADDITIONAL HAZARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS THE HEAT INDEX WHICH WILL
RISE TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW AND MID 90S
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK WILL RESULT IN
VERY UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IF
OUTDOORS.

DISCUSSION...

NUMEROUS PRE EXISTING BOUNDARIES ARE PRESENT THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE INDICES (CAPES TO 3800 IN SOME
AREAS...AND LIS TO -7) POINT TO PULSE TYPE ACTIVITY. INTERACTION OF
BOUNDARIES AND THE PRESENCE OF A LAKE BREEZE MOVING SLOWLY INLAND
WILL PRODUCE STORMS WHERE THE BOUNDARIES INTERSECT. SHEAR PROFILES
DO NOT SUPPORT LONG LIVED STORMS ALTHOUGH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
CELLS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ON A LOCALIZED BASIS THANKS
TO A WEAK FLOW ALOFT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN.

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

GEO

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