Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
330 PM CDT THU JUL 8 1999

FAST MOVG SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACRS WI TNGT. LATEST SFC PLOTS/PRESSURE
TENDENCY PLOTS SUGGEST LOW WILL TRACK ACRS CENTRAL WI...A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH THAN THE MODELS FCST. DESPITE CLD COVER...ATM ACRS THE SW 1/2 OF
THE STATE HAS SLOWLY DESTABILIZED. THE AIR OVER IA IS MUCH MORE
UNSTABLE...WITH SFC BASED LI/S AOB -8. SLY WINDS MAY YET ADVECT SOME OF
THIS MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE SRN PART OF MY FCST AREA. IF SO...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX WILL INCR GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR ACRS THE
RGN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THIS IN ZFP.

EVEN IF CONVECTION DOES NOT BECOME SVR...THERE WILL BE SCT TSTMS ACRS
THE SRN PART OF MY FCST AREA TNGT. PCPN WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD FARTHER
NORTH...SO WILL CARRY PERIODS OF TSTMS THERE. WILL END TSTMS LATER TNGT
AS MID-LEVEL DRYING SWEEPS ACRS THE AREA.

THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN WILL COME TOMORROW AFTN AS STG UPR SYSTEM DRIVES SE
INTO THE AREA. WILL CONFINE MENTION OF PCPN TO THE AFTN ACRS THE NW PART
OF MY FCST AREA...AND KEEP A MENTION INTO THE EVENING IN THE SE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER AS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY GENERATING TSTMS NR
LAKE WINNEPEG IN AIR MASS WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 50S. DRIER AIR SHOULD
SWEEP ACRS THE AREA LATER TOMORROW NGT AND SATURDAY.

STAYED CLOSE TO FWC TEMPS.

WILL CONT DRY WX THROUGH MUCH OF THE XTD FCST AS WNW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP SIG MOISTURE S OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL INTRODUCE A
CHC OF TSTMS TUE AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST.

.GRB...NONE.

SKOWRONSKI
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