Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 PM MDT (325 PM CDT) MON MAY 31 1999

...CHALLENGES IN FIRST PD...TYPE...SEVERITY AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP...

SAT PICS AND 18Z SFC MAP SHOW STUBBORN LOW CLOUDINESS HANGING ON
OVER ENTIRE CWA. RESULT...TEMPS OVER ENTIRE CWA STILL IN 50S AND LOW
60S. SAT PICS SHOW PARTIAL CLEARING ADVANCING INTO FAR EASTERN CO
ATTM...BUT SLOWLY. GLD 88D VWP SHOWS STEADY WINDS UP TO 25K...SO
LOTS OF CLOUDS STILL UP THERE. HOWEVER SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
WITHING NEXT FEW HOURS TO ALLOW AT LEAST SOME PM HEATING. THIS AM
88D VWP SHOWED NOTICEABLE HT VEERING CONTRIBUTING TO HELICITY.
HOWEVER AT CURRENT TIME DIRECTION CHANGE WITH HT DECREASING BUT
SPEED CHANGE INCREASING WITH HT WITH NEAR 60 KT JET AT 25K ATTM.

ETA INITIALIZED BEST AT SFC AND 50H THIS AM SO AM GOING WITH IT.
WITH ALL OF CWA STILL IN SLIGHT RISK BUT CLOUDINESS HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON KEEPING LOWER LEVELS SOMEWHAT STABLE
CHALLENGE BECOMES WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO TSTMS THAT DEVELOP IN CO AND
MOVE INTO AREA THIS EVENING. ETA BRINGS VORT MAX INTO NW KS IN LATE
EVENING AND MOVES E ACROSS NRN PTN OF CWA. THINK THIS WILL INSTIGATE
TSTMS IN NE CO WHICH...AS THEY MOVE ENE INTO MORE MOISTURE LADEN
AIR...WILL RESULT IN MCC/MCS DEVELOPMENT NEAR NE PTN OF MY CWA(NEAR
NC KS/SC NEB BORDER AFTER MID-NIGHT). ETA WOULD KEEP COLDER AIR
ALOFT JUST TO NORTH OF MY CWA. ALSO APPEARS MDT RISK TO STAY S OF MY
CWA WITH HEAVIER STORMS TO DEVELOP IN SE CO AS RESULT OF ANOTHER
VORT MAX IN THAT AREA TO MOVE INTO AREAS JUST S OF CWA.

REGARDLESS WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...ETA MOVING MOD VORT
MAX ACROSS NRN PTN CWA DURING NIGHT WITH UVV MAX MOVING ACROSS AREA
WITH IT...LOOK FOR TSTM NIGHT WITH MAX NUMBER AND RAINFALL E OF A
LINE FROM NEAR TRENTON NEB TO VCNTY QUINTER KS. DRIER AIR SWEEPS
INTO CWA FROM NW ON TUES AS UPPER S/W MOVES INTO E KS. SUBSIDENCE
AND BRIEF RIDGE APPEARS WILL MOVE IN AND BRING FAIR WEATHER TO CWA
INTO WEDS. ON WEDS BEGIN TO SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
RETURN OF CHANCE OF LATE PM/EARLY EVEN TSTMS AS SW FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS TO AREA.

IN EXTENDED LONG WAVE INTENSIFIES OVER INTRA-MT WEST WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT OVER HIGH PLAINS. OCCASIONAL S/WS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF L/W OVER
THE PD RESULT IN CHANCE OF TSTMS THROUGHOUT PD AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS.

.GLD...NONE.

RJC

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COZ091-092-010255-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
259 PM MDT MON MAY 31 1999

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM MDT UNTIL 9 PM MDT FOR
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED IN THIS WATCH...

     IN EXTREME EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON.

THIS INCLUDES...BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     FLAGLER...SEIBERT...STRATTON...BURLINGTON...WILD HORSE...
     KIT CARSON...AND CHEYENNE WELLS.

WHEN SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS...THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE IS IN AN
INTERIOR SMALL ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWER FLOOR OF A BUILDING.

THEDE