Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
208 PM MDT SUN MAY 16 1999

ATTM LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WAS PERSISTING ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FEW
MINOR BREAKS ACROSS THE NW CWA. SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND LATEST
RUC SHOWED SOME MID LEVEL CAA HERE FIRST MAY PRODUCE A FEW LATE
AFTN TSTMS. ALSO HI DEWPTS CONT OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA AND A FEW
TSTMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN HERE AS THE NEG LIS EXIT BY
TONIGHT. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED THE ETA BEING STRONGER WITH THE SFC LOW
OVER KANSAS AND MAY LEAN TOWARD A NGM/ETA SOLN.

AS A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WAS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ITS ASSOCIATED 5H/VORT MAX
WILL MOVE INTO SC NE/NC KS BY MIDDAY MONDAY. BEFORE IT DOES MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE CWA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF. PLENTY OF MID LEVEL VORT ADVTN AND AFTER ANALYZING TIME
SECTIONS SHOWED VERY GOOD LIFT...OMEGAS AND 7H/VVELOCITIES...TONIGHT
ACROSS THE FA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SW JET CONTS THIS EVENING WITH AN
APPROACHING RRQ WHICH SHUD ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
FA. ALSO WITH MID LEVEL COOLING AND TMPS DIFFERENCES BETTER THAN 30C
BETWEEN 850/5H WILL GO HIER THAN MOS WITH POPS TONIGHT.

CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING AS 5H/MAX DRIFTS
EAST OF THE FA BY MIDDAY. COOL BUT IMPROVING WEATHER SHUD OCCUR FROM
W TO E AS A 5H/RIDGE EDGES INTO THE CWA LATE MON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AS SFC WNDS DECREASE A COOL MORNING MAY BE IN STORE. DRIER
AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTN TMPS ARE EXPECTED TUE WITH INCREASING
5H/HGHTS AND THCKNS.

EXTENDED CONTS TO HAVE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTN TMPS.
DESPITE 5H/RIDGE OVER FA SUBTLE DISTURBANCE MAY SNEAK BELOW THE RIDGE
A PRODUCE A FEW TSHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THIS WAS LATER IN THE WEEK...MRF
WAS SHOWING A STRONG MID LEVEL LOW MOVING NE INTO OUR CWA THUR WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. THEREFORE WILL
INCLUDE POPS FOR THUR/FRI.

.GLD...NONE.

VPAPOL