Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
310 PM MDT (410 PM CDT) SAT AUG 28 1999

...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHC OF PCPN THRU PD FOLLOWED BY RNFL
INTENSITY TONIGHT...

LTL SHORT OF TIME DUE TO WATCH ALREADY BEING PUT OUT FOR WRN AND NRN
PTN OF CWFA. BASED ON BETTER INITIAL ANALYSIS AND SIX HOUR TRENDS AS
SEEN ON RADAR...SATL...AND SFC...WL PREFER THE ETA OVERALL. ETA IS
CATCHING DPS BETTER FM SFC TO 700 MB ALONG WITH S/W DETAILS. MSTR
CONV AND OMEGA FIELDS OF ETA ARE CORRESPONDING WELL TO ACTIVITY
NOW OVR CO.

VORT MAX OVR NRN WY WITH S/W EXTND SOUTH OF IT. ANOTHER VORT MAX
PUSHING THRU CNTRL CO ATTM. MSTR IS PLENTIFUL PER SATL WATER VAPOR
AND 850 MB UPR AIR ANAL AND SFC ANAL. GOOD MSTR CONV...7-5 OMEGA...
25H AGEO DIV...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU THE NIGHT. SO WL BE PUTTING
SCT TO NMRS TON. QUESTION THEN TURNS TO POSIBILITY OF FLOODING RAINS
SINCE ANALYSIS OF PROFILER AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE SLOW MOVEMENT. NEW
FFG IS HIGH ACROSS ENTIRE CWFA WITH 2.7 THE LOWEST AMOUNT ON THREE
HOUR GUIDANCE. SINCE ETA AND QPFERD HAVE BACKED OFF A LTL FM PREV
FCSTS AND WITH HIGH GUIDANCE WL PREFER NOT TO ISSUANCE A WATCH AND
WL ONLY MENTION LCLLY HVY RNFL.

ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF EAST SUN MRNG WITH WEST STABILIZED
TIL AFTN BEHIND WAVE. WEAKER S/W PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS AREA SUN
AFTN AND NIGHT BUT TEMPS WL BE COOLER ALOFT WITH THIS ONE. MSTR
REMAINING PLENTIFUL DUE TO SFC LOW RMNG IN SE CO AND SW TO W FLOW
ALOFT. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS THRU SUN NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF
MSTR CONV AND OMEGA FM 700 TO 250 MB TO MOVE ACROSS AGAIN.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT ERN CWA WL HAVE A BETTER SHOT WITH A PSBL MCS
BASED ON 7-3 THICKNESS. SO WL AGAIN GO SCT TMRW NIGHT FOR ENTIRE CWA
WITH ERN CWA HAVG HIEST POPS.

ANOTHER WK S/W APRCHES WEST ON MON AFTN AND WL INCLUDE SLGT CHC.
BASED ON DPS WL GO SLIGHTLY ABV NGM MOS FOR MINS. NGM MOS MAXES LOOK
RSNBL BASED ON CLD COVER AND WND FIELD...BUT NGM HAS HAD TENDENCY TO
HAVE BEEN TOO COOL ON MAXES RECENTLY. SO WL GO NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NGM
MOS FOR MAXES. S/WS...MSTR...AND BNDRIES ARND THRU EXTENDED WARRANT
KEEPING CHC OF TSRA IN.

.GLD...NONE.

BULLER

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COZ090>092-NEZ079>081-282300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
151 PM MDT SAT AUG 28 1999

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT (8 PM
CDT)...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR A PORTION OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND A PORTION OF EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA UNTIL 7 PM MDT (8 PM CDT). THE WATCH INCLUDES
THE COUNTIES OF YUMA AND KIT CARSON IN COLORADO AND DUNDY...
HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW IN NEBRASKA.

THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH VERY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. LOOK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE COMMERCIAL SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING.

SKIPPER

COZ090>092-NEZ079>081-282300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
151 PM MDT SAT AUG 28 1999

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT (8 PM
CDT)...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR A PORTION OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND A PORTION OF EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA UNTIL 7 PM MDT (8 PM CDT). THE WATCH INCLUDES
THE COUNTIES OF YUMA AND KIT CARSON IN COLORADO AND DUNDY...
HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW IN NEBRASKA.

THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH VERY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. LOOK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE COMMERCIAL SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING.

SKIPPER