Severe Thunderstorm Warning 158, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
248 AM MDT WED JUN 30 1999

FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE TEMPERATURES.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FIRST S/WV THAT MOVED ACROSS KANSAS TODAY
KEPT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. HOWEVER...VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF THE WEAK S/WV CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA HAS ALLOWED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GLD CWFA OVERNIGHT.

STILL GOING WITH THE ETA SOLUTION SINCE IT DID WELL PICKING OUT THE
AREAS OF CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IT SEEMS TO BE DOING
BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS ON THE 00Z RUN.

THE MAIN AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL SKIRT THE FORECAST
AREA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN S/WV DYNAMICS
WILL STAY NORTH ALONG THE JET STREAM. THE HIGHEST THETA-E VALUES AND
GREATEST INSTABILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE REGION JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM
FRONT THAT HAS ANCHORED ITSELF ACROSS OKLAHOMA. ONCE THE MAIN S/WV
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND PRECIP WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE S/WVS WILL AFFECT THE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH NO
COMPELLING REASON TO DEVIATE...WILL STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
NUMBERS.

WILL TWEAK THE EXTENDED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT MINOR CHANCES IN NEW MRF.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

.GLD...NONE.

LOCKHART

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1025 AM MDT WED JUN 30 1999

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0730 AM    10 N ST FRANCIS           KS    1.75 INCH HAIL
06/30/99   CHEYENNE                        MASSIVE CROP DAMAGE.
                                           DRIFTS OF HAIL TO ONE
                                           FOOT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1025 AM MDT WED JUN 30 1999

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0730 AM    10 N ST FRANCIS           KS    1.75 INCH HAIL
06/30/99   CHEYENNE                        MASSIVE CROP DAMAGE.
                                           DRIFTS OF HAIL TO ONE
                                           FOOT.

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-010600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1052 AM MDT WED JUN 30 1999

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
IGNITING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERAL REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL WERE
REPORTED. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RE-ENERGIZE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER.

LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.
THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM HITCHCOCK COUNTY NEBRASKA TO THOMAS COUNTY KANSAS. THE
THREAT IS A BIT LOWER WEST OF THAT LINE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WIND PROFILES ARE ALSO SUGGESTIVE OF
TORNADOES. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES WILL BE ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM RED WILLOW COUNTY NEBRASKA TO GOVE COUNTY KANSAS
WHERE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ROTATION.

THEDE

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-010600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1052 AM MDT WED JUN 30 1999

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
IGNITING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERAL REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL WERE
REPORTED. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RE-ENERGIZE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER.

LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.
THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM HITCHCOCK COUNTY NEBRASKA TO THOMAS COUNTY KANSAS. THE
THREAT IS A BIT LOWER WEST OF THAT LINE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WIND PROFILES ARE ALSO SUGGESTIVE OF
TORNADOES. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES WILL BE ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM RED WILLOW COUNTY NEBRASKA TO GOVE COUNTY KANSAS
WHERE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ROTATION.

THEDE