Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 PM MDT SUN JUN 27 1999

PROBLEM IS WHERE TO PLACE TRACK OF ADVERTISED MCS.  TSRA ALREADY
INITIATING IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO.

HAVE USED ETA FOR THIS PACKAGE AS IT WAS THE ONLY MODEL CLOSE WITH
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH NGM WAS CLOSE WITH LOCATION OF NEARBY VORTS.
LAST NIGHTS STRONGEST CONVECTION STAYED ALONG AND TO THE COOL SIDE
OF 13C ISOTHERM...SO WILL USE IT AGAIN TO PLACE TRACK OF MCS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH 700-300 MB THICKNESS PATTERN.  GENERALLY BELIEVE A
SIDNEY NEB TO COLBY KS TO RUSSELL KS TRACK FOR SOUTH EDGE OF STRONG
CONVECTION WILL BE THE BEST BET.

GIVEN LOCATION OF LAST NIGHTS HEAVIEST RAINS AND 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THIS EXPECTED MCS TRACK...WILL TUNE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO ALONG AND EAST OF A MCCOOK NEB-OBERLIN KS-HILL CITY
ARC.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT...BUT IT WILL BE
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PICK THE EXACT PLACE.  AT PRESENT...I LIKE THE
DEWPOINT GRADIENT IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH TERRAIN AND INTERSECTION
OF OLD OUTFLOWS FROM TONIGHTS MCS.  WILL CARRY 80 TO 85F FOR MAXES
BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS AND LESS THE 50 PERCENT SUNSHINE WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW.  MOST CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN BE AFTER 00Z.

TUESDAY...ETA SAYS PERSISTENCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS FOR ALL BUT
SOUTHWEST CWFA.  THAT CORNER SHOULD GET AN INCREASE IN POPS DUE TO
COOLER 700 MB TEMPS OVER DRYLINE.

IN THE EXTENDED...WILL RUN WITH NCEP GUIDANCE SINCE IVE SPENT MOST
OF THE DAY COORDINATING TONIGHTS ACTIVITY WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTS.

.GLD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 AM CDT NORTHEAST OF A MCCOOK NEB-
       OBERLIN KS-HILL CITY KS ARC /KSZ003-004-016-NEZ081/.

ENTWISTLE

COZ090-091-KSZ001>004-013>016-NEZ079>081-281100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 PM MDT SUN JUN 27 1999

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST KANSAS UNTIL 5
AM MDT (6 AM CDT)...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND
NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THIS WATCH INCLUDE:

IN COLORADO...KIT CARSON AND YUMA.
IN NEBRASKA...DUNDY...HITCHCOCK...AND RED WILLOW.
IN KANSAS...CHEYENNE...DECATUR...GRAHAM...NORTON...RAWLINS...
SHERIDAN...SHERMAN...AND THOMAS.

A DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN
WYOMING. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES ACROSS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...
AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SVEN

COZ090-091-KSZ001>004-013>016-NEZ079>081-281100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 PM MDT SUN JUN 27 1999

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST KANSAS UNTIL 5
AM MDT (6 AM CDT)...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND
NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THIS WATCH INCLUDE:

IN COLORADO...KIT CARSON AND YUMA.
IN NEBRASKA...DUNDY...HITCHCOCK...AND RED WILLOW.
IN KANSAS...CHEYENNE...DECATUR...GRAHAM...NORTON...RAWLINS...
SHERIDAN...SHERMAN...AND THOMAS.

A DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN
WYOMING. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES ACROSS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...
AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SVEN

KSZ001-280605-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1137 PM MDT (1237 AM CDT) SUN JUN 27 1999

THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST
OF ST FRANCIS THORUGH 20 MILES EAST OF SAINT FRANCIS CONTINUES TO
BUILD NEW STORMS RAPIDLY AND ARE MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THE GREATEST
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS ARE DAMAGING WINDS.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

SVEN/SKIPPER