Tornado Warning 24, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
245 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 1999

MRNG UAA VERY SIMILIAR TO THU WITH UPR LOW OVR PAC NW WITH SHRTWV
PLOUGHING ACRS GREAT BASIN.  SFC LOW WAS CNTRD NR NERN CO TDA WITH
LLVL MSTR IN PLACE AFT BEING DRUG NWD BY LAST NGTS MCS.

TSRA WL RMN THE QN OF THE FP AS SHRTWVS MOVE OUT OF THE CNTRL
ROCKIES AND OVR THE NRN PLAINS.  CO/WRN KS SFC LOW NOT PROGD TO
MOVE MUCH WITH FOCUSING WARM FNT EXPECTED NR NEB/KS BRDR THRU SAT NGT
AS PCPN ENHANCES THE BNDRY.  WITH ABUNDANT MSTR AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES...ATMOSPHERE WL RMN UNSTABLE WITH MDLS DIFFERING IN MAGNITUDE.
SEE SWO FOR DETAILS.  LIMITING FACTOR...18Z LBF SOUNDING AND OAX 12Z
SOUNDING RECORDED AN 8 DEG CAP.

CLDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING OVR NWRN KS AND SWRN NEB AND AMOUNT OF
HEATING THE BIG QN THRU THIS AFTN WITH ABOVE MENTIONED CAP. SVR
TSTMS EXPECTED TO DVLP OVR WRN NEB LTR TDA IN NGM/ETA AREA OF MSTR
CNVGNC WITH FOCUSED OMEGA FIELD FM INCRSG UPR DVRGNC AND WARM ADVCTN.
MSTR CNVGNC PROG REASONABLE WITH BNDRY EVIDENT ON 18Z SFC ANALYSIS
FM LOW NR CO/KS TO NR RAP.  WL STAY WITH SCENARIO OF MCS PROPAGATION
E/SEWD INTO CWA TNGT WITH NR 40 KT LLVL JET FOR SUSTENANCE.  WRN CWA
IS IN MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE. TSRA FIRING OVR NERN CO BY MID AFTN
AND SHRA OVR WRN NEB IN AREA OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON EDGE OF CLOUD
MASS...WL STAY WITH LIKELY IN NEB COUNTIES AND CHC KS AREA.

PTN UNCHANGED ON SAT WITH ETA KPG THE SFC LOW OVR NERN CO...NGM
FURTHER N.  EXPECT AFTN DVLPMNT AGAIN IN AREA OF MSTR CNVGNC OVR NWRN
NEB AND ALNG WARM FNT NR NEB/KS STATELINE.  WL KP IN CHC CATEGORIES
FOR 2ND AND 3RD PDS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE SVR FOR PD 2.  MUCH WL
DEPEND ON WHAT TNGTS ACTIVITY LAYS DOWN IN THE WAY OF BNDRIES.  NEB
COUNTIES OF CWA UNDR MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE ON SAT.

NE/SW FNT ACRS CNTRL PLAINS WITH EJECTING SHRTWVS FM UPR TROF
OVR GREAT BASIN WL REQUIRE CHC POPS FOR SUN AND INTO EFP.

.GID...NONE.

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