Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
315 PM CDT MON JUN 7 1999

FAIRLY COMPLEX PTRN COMING UP THE NXT COUPLE OF DAYS...STARTING
TNGT. IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT...DECIDED TO GO AHD AND PUT IN CHC POPS
OF TSTMS DVLPING IN A ZONE FM NR THE MO RIVER...ARCHING BACK EWRD TO
SW MN...BUT LEAVING NW IA DRY. WHAT APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING IS A
RETURN OF THE LLVL JET...850MB THETA E RIDGING AND WAA TNGT. RUC SHOWS
INCREASING INSTABILITY TOWARD THE MO RIVER...WITH SFC BASED LIS
ARND -4 THIS EVENING. THIS IS ON THE NOSE OF A LLVL JET WHICH
INCREASES FM 15 TO 35 KTS THRU THE EVENING HRS ACRS SCNTRL SD. IN
ADDN...RUC AND ETA HINT AT A SLIGHT INVERTED TROFFING TNGT
STRETCHING UP FM DVLPING LOW PRES IN WRN HIGH PLAINS...TOWARD SCNTRL
SD. THIS IS ACTING TO DVLP A LLVL BNDRY...AND TURNING THE WNDS FM
THE SE TO E ON THE NRN AND WRN EDGES OF THE CWA. ETA AND RUC ALSO
SHOW GOOD LLVL CONV AND UPR LVL DIV AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...
GENERALLY STRETCHING FM THE MO RIVER...THRU BKX AND ATY TOWARD SWRN
MN. LAPSE RATES ALSO GREATLY STEEPEN AND DIR WND SHEAR BECOMES
FAVORABLE. NGM AND ETA ALSO PROG SOME LIFT OVR SWRN MN...BUT NO
DOUBT THINGS ARE MORE STABLE HERE. LEFT POPS OUT OF NWRN IA...
THINKING THEY ARE TOO FAR AWAY FM ANY FOCUS.

FURTHER OUT...STRONG CDFNT STARTS TO CREEP OUT INTO WRN PLAINS ON
TUE. FOLLOWED THE SLOW AVN WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FNT. AS LLVL JET
INCREASES ACRS THE ERN PLAINS TUE AND WED...THIS FNT WL HIT THIS
HUMID AIR AND THEN SLOW TO A CRAWL...WITH MOST OF THE UPR DYNAMICS
RIDING PARALLEL AND BEHIND THE FNT INTO ND. THEREFORE...LEFT POPS
OUT DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH FOCUSING MECHANISM TOO FAR WEST. ETA
CAPES ARE GREAT...BUT WITH NO FOCUS...IT WL BE TOUGH TO GET AFTN
DVLPMENT GOING. BUT DVLPMENT SHOULD OCCUR IN THE WRN PLAINS LATE
TUE...THEN MOVG TOWARD THE E TO NE TUE NIGHT. FEEL CHCS DECREASE
HEADING EWD AWAY FM THE BNDRY...AND STORMS GENERALLY MOVG NE. THE
BEST CHCS FOR TSTMS SHOULD BE WITH THE BNDRY LATE WED AND WED NIGHT.
AVN PROGS GOOD 70 KT JET COMING INTO AREA WITH THE FNT ON WED...AND
ALL MDLS HAVE STRONG INSTABILITY. FNT SHOULD BE NEAR SUX BY 12Z
THU...THEN IT HANGS UP AS AN INVERTED TROF JUST SOUTH OF CWA THU
THRU SAT. THEREFORE HAVE CHCS FOR PCPN FOR THE SERN CWA ALL THREE
DAYS. SHOULD BE RATHER DAMP AND HUMID ACRS CWA THESE DAYS...AND
UPSLOPE WL ALSO START IN THE WRN CWA.

.FSD...NONE
FUHS