Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
145 AM CDT FRI JUN 4 1999

AN EARLY AFD IN CASE THE REST OF THIS NIGHT TURNS BUSIER. LLJ
CONTINUES TO ASSIST IN MASSIVE WAA AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HELPING
TO BRING RISK OF TSTMS AND SVR WX THE NXT FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH EYES
HAVE BEEN ON SAT NGT FOR SVR WX DUE TO UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS...FRI NGT HAS SNEAKED IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS AND
RISK OF SVR WX. I CANNOT REMEMBER THE LAST TIME IVE SEEN OVERNIGHT
CAPES AS HIGH AS FCST BY THE ETA FOR FRI NGT. ACCORDING TO THE ETA
850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH 50 KNOT LLJ TO HELP SET
BOUNDARY ALONG THE SD/NE BORDER INTO NW IA. WHILE CAP/CIN WL
DOMINATE FURTHER S...TSTMS SHOULD EASILY BREAK CAP BETWEEN I-29 AND
SRN BOUNDARIES OF THE CWA GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SPC PLACES
MODERATE RISK OF SVR WX FOR ALL OF THE FSD CWA...AND WL GET NO
ARGUMENT HERE.

WHILE ABV SCENERIO IS ACCORDING TO ETA AND THE ONE I WL BE PROMOTING IN
THE FCST PKG...FEEL PRUDENT TO MENTION THAT THE NGM IS FURTHER N IN
THE BOUNDARIES AND WAA ALONG WITH CAP DOMINATING MORE OF THE SRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. REGARDLESS OF EITHER MDL SOLN THREAT FOR AN
EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT SVR WX EVENT FRI NGT SOMWHERE IN THE CWA WL BE
AT WORK.  AN EARLY SVR WX OUTLOOK FOR THE MODERATE RISK WHICH WL BE
ISSUED ONCE THE CURRENT WATCH FOR THU NGT WX EXPIRES.

.FSD...NONE

BR