Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
340 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 1999

LOUSY PERFORMANCE OF 00Z MODELS SPELLS JOB SECURITY TO ME. NONE OF
THE MDLS EXCEPT THE RUC BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS CURRENTLY IN
THE CWA EARLY ENOUGH. MDLS OF 24 HRS AGO DID A BETTER JOB THAN THIS
NEWEST GENERATION. DONT BELIEVE ME...EVEN THE 05Z HON LAMP MOS
COULDNT FCST THE 05Z TSTMS THAT WERE IN THE SFC OBSERVATION.
OVERALL I DO NOT LIKE ANY OF THE MDL SOLNS AND THIS MORNINGS FCST
PKG WL UNFORTUNELY COMBINE ALL 3 SOLNS INTO THE FCST AND BROAD BRUSH
THE FCST. WHEN NECESSARY...FOLLOWED NGM SOLN SINCE YESTERDAYS 00Z
RUN WAS CLOSEST IN PROGGING THIS EARLY MRNGS SYSTEM. MDLS HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHRTWVS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TDY THROUGH MON AS ROCKIES TROF IS SQUEEZED OUT
BY A BUILDING RIDGE IN WRN CONUS. ETA THE QUICKEST TO FILL IN TROF
THUS PROVIDES THE LEAST MID TO UPPER LVL SUPPORT FOR PCPN
DEVELOPMENT WHEN COMPARED TO THE NGM AND EVEN AVN. NGM/AVN ALSO
PLACE SFC LOW FURTHER N THAN ETA THEN SLOWLY MOVES SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ENE THROUGH THE PKG. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE
SIGNIFICANT IN THAT BOTH THE NGM AND AVN INDICATE SIGNIFICANT LIFT
FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT TNGT AND THE ETA PREFERS TO BRING SUBSIDENCE TO
THE AREA.

WHILE MOS/FAN PROVIDE SOME PRETTY HIGH POPS FOR TNGT AND MON IN MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH PREVIOUS PKG HAVING 2ND AND 3RD PRDS DRY WL NEED
TO BE A LITTLE POLITICAL AND UNDERCUT GUIDANCE. HOPEFULLY 12Z MDL
RUNS WL PROVIDE A MORE CONSISTANT SOLNS BETWEEN THE MDLS RUNS AND
REALITY TO HELP WITH THE AFTN PKG.  ALL I CAN SAY IS...GOOD LUCK...

OZFFSD ALREADY SENT BUT WL PROBABLY MAKE A FEW MORE CHANGES FOR
FINAL PRODUCT.

.FSD...NONE

BR