Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1999

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

August 16, 1999Coconino County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 16, 1999, 2:36 PM MST for Coconino County, Arizona. It was in force for 29 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Aug 16, 1999, 2:36 PM MST (21:36 UTC)
Expired
Aug 16, 1999, 3:05 PM MST
In force
29 min
Issued by
NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area
Whole counties

County Coconino County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 150 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 68 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 1999-08-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 228 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 1999-08-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 18 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
228 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-64 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1220 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
18 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
49 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
TTAA00 KFLG 162139 RRA
SVRFLG
AZC005-162210-
-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
236 PM MST MON AUG 16 1999

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

* UNTIL 305 PM MST

* AT 232 PM MST...  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
  INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF HEBER OR
  22 MILES NORTH OF FOREST LAKES... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

*THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
 HIGHWAY 99 NEAR CHEVLON BUTTE AT 245.

DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY. GO INSIDE A STURDY
BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!
j
TW

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 16, 2:30 PM MST, 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 16, 2:30 PM MST, 6 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST MON AUG 16 1999

SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA ON TUESDAY
WITH FEWER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY WEDNESDAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RAIN FALL POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN RIM TO THE
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE CANYON AND INTO THE NORTH KAIBAB.
STEERING WIND WILL PUSH THE STORMS OFF THE RIM AND TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING. FOUR CORNER HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE AND MOVE WEST
SOME ON TUESDAY AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE STATE.  WILL STILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND END SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE RE-CENTERS OVER FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY
AND WILL CIRCULATE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE STATE AND WILL INCREASE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.  EASTERLY WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS IS PROGED BY THE AVN TO REACH
SOUTHERN AZ BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE
MOISTURE OVER N AZ.
EXTENDED...THE MRF KEEPS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAS

.FLG...NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 16, 9:30 AM MST, 5 hours 6 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-162000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST MON AUG 16 1999

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY...

...SPOTTER REPORTS REQUESTED FOR HEAVY RAIN...

DISCUSSION...MOISTURE STILL REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING.
THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE LITTLE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES. BECAUSE OF
THIS...MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED HERE AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO
DEVELOP WILL MOSTLY CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP FIRST OVER THE RIM COUNTRY...INCLUDING THE KAIBAB PLATEAU
AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE VALLEYS AND DESERTS. THE STRONGER
AND MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST. STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD START DEVELOPING BY 11 AM MST TO 12 PM MST THIS MORNING.

MAS
Special weather statement, Aug 16, 9:30 AM MST, 5 hours 6 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-162000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST MON AUG 16 1999

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY...

...SPOTTER REPORTS REQUESTED FOR HEAVY RAIN...

DISCUSSION...MOISTURE STILL REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING.
THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE LITTLE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES. BECAUSE OF
THIS...MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED HERE AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO
DEVELOP WILL MOSTLY CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP FIRST OVER THE RIM COUNTRY...INCLUDING THE KAIBAB PLATEAU
AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE VALLEYS AND DESERTS. THE STRONGER
AND MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST. STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD START DEVELOPING BY 11 AM MST TO 12 PM MST THIS MORNING.

MAS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 16, 12:44 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino31 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 1999Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1999

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.