Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
300 AM CDT SAT JUL 3 1999

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF TSRA AS WELL AS
TEMPS. MODELS GENERALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH PERIOD. THROUGH EARLY
FCST PERIOD 3HR PRESSURE FALL TENDENCY FROM MSAS WOULD FAVOR ETA SFC
LOW LOCATION VS NGM HOWEVER MODELS CONVERGE IN LATER PERIODS.

CURRENT SFC MAP INDICATING WK BOUNDARY FROM SW TO NE ND. CURRENT NON
SEVERE CONVECTION NORTH OF MCS OVR ND ASSOCIATED WITH VORT LOBE/S/W
PICKED UP ON MODELS AND WV WITH SHIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH
AIRMASS SOMEWHAT CONTAMINATED BY CURRENT SD/MN MCS HOWEVER WARM FRONT
LOOKS TO BE ORIENTED FROM SFC LOW OVR CENTRAL SD EASTWARD TO NEAR ATY
THEN INTO SW MN.

SEVERE WX PARAMATERS IN PLACE FOR LATER TODAY ACROSS LARGE PART OF FA.
WYO SFC LOW PROPAGATES EAST TO CENTRAL SD WITH WARM FRONT FROM SE NE TO
LAKE SUPERIOR. SW UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING PERIOD AND TUF TO PICKOUT
ANY PARTICULAR WAVE UPSTREAM. INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING AM AS 65 TO
70 TDS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND PWATS INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 1.5
INCHES WHICH MAY BRING HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO AREA. FEEL INITIAL PRIME
AREA TO BE FROM LOW CENTER ALONG BOUNDARY. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
DURING DAY TO NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00Z. WITH IMPRESSIVE H7 TEMPS ONE
WOULD THINK AIRMASS WOULD BE CAPPED AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS MAY INHIBIT INITIAL HEATING SO MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR AIRMASS TO
REALLY DESTABALIZE SO MAIN SEVERE THREAT MAY BE FARTHER NORTH AS NEXT
SW LIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT. OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO
INFLUENCE SEVERE THREAT WITH PASSING MCS. TIMING OF UPPER SUPPORT ALSO
IN QUESTION FOR EARLY SVR THREAT.

WAA CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AND WITH SFC LOW HANGING UP OVR SD WITH SW-NE
ORIENTED BOUNDARY THROUGH FA FELL CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER
SE PTN OF FA.

.FGF...NONE

VOELKER

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052-053-031410-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
545 AM CDT SAT JUL 3 1999

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

AREA OF CONCERN...THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING
NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

TIME...START AFTER NOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.

TYPE OF HAZARD...MAINLY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
EXPECTED.

VOELKER

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052-053-031410-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
545 AM CDT SAT JUL 3 1999

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

AREA OF CONCERN...THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING
NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

TIME...START AFTER NOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.

TYPE OF HAZARD...MAINLY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
EXPECTED.

VOELKER

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