Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1232 PM MDT MON MAY 24 1999

SYNOPSIS...
MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LOW DRAGGING TROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WILL LEAD TO DRIER STABLE ATMOSPHERE TUESDAY...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS.

DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE DAY OF CONVECTIVE PYROTECHNICS AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE. OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT BECAME
STATIONARY OUT WEST...FROM ABOUT SILVER CITY SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. APPEARS DRYLINE IS JUST WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA FROM SILVER CITY EAST...WITH SOME
SMALLER CU FORMING IN THE BOOTHEEL. RADAR SHOWS SMALL THUNDERSTORMS
ALREADY NEAR WHITE SANDS AND DOWN NEAR FABENS IN WEST TEXAS...SO
ACTION HAS ALREADY STARTED. LOOK AT MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS MAX CAPE AND
THETAE VALUES OVER MOST OF FA. MOST OF FA...EXCEPT HIDALGO AND GRANT
COUNTIES SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THOUGH BELIEVE ANY SEVERE
VARIETY WOULD BE LIMITED TO AREA EAST OF DEMING. STAY TUNED.

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO COLORADO AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH DRAGS
THROUGH. H5 COLD POOL MOVES OVER AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH DRY AIR
LIKELY ONLY SOME SCATTERED CU/VIRGA AT WORST FOR TUESDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS...15 TO 25 MPH...DO KICK IN WITH THE WESTERLIES TOMORROW.

EL PASO               BB  60/ 89/ 58/ 91/ 61  20000
LAS CRUCES            BB  55/ 87/ 53/ 89/ 54  20000
ALAMOGORDO            BB  57/ 88/ 55/ 90/ 58  30000
CLOUDCROFT            BB  43/ 65/ 40/ 68/ 42  30000
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES BB  54/ 86/ 52/ 87/ 55  20000
SILVER CITY           BB  45/ 80/ 43/ 82/ 45  1-000
DEMING                BB  50/ 87/ 48/ 88/ 51  10000
LORDSBURG             BB  51/ 88/ 49/ 89/ 52  -0000

17 HEFNER

N

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-242325-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
127 PM MDT MON MAY 24 1999

...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS WILL PROVIDE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RADAR IS SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS DEVELOPING ALREADY IN THIS GENERAL AREA. SMALL HAIL UP TO
ONE-HALF INCH AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS. LOCAL HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...THUS ENDING THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SAME MANNER.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS ARE URGED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR THE ABOVE
MENTIONED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

NMZ023>025-032-TXZ055-056-250220-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
225 PM MDT MON MAY 24 1999

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR FAR WEST TEXAS AND MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT...THIS INCLUDES EL PASO
AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES OF WEST TEXAS...AND OTERO...DONA ANA AND
SIERRA COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...

MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXIST OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WEST TEXAS...PRODUCING CONDITIONS THAT ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OR TORNADOES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL END BY
LATE EVENING.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR. BE READY TO SEEK A PLACE OF
SAFETY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.