Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
133 PM MDT SUN JUN 13 1999

SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY
EASTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  MOISTURE BROUGHT IN BY THE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DISCUSSION...
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS
INDICATED BY MORNING EPZ SOUNDING IS BEGINNING TO PRODUCE RESULTS
WITH SCATTERED TSTMS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE GILA
WILDERNESS AND NEAR LAS CRUCES WITH TOWERING CU ELSEWHERE. THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
PRESENT AND ADEQUATE LIFT AND LAPSE RATES.  EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THE
STORMS WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING UP INTO WESTERN CANADA INTO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH A SLOW SOUTHEASTERLY DRIFT.
MODELS PROG THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROF TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. ADDITIONALLY..THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ALL THE WAY TO THE
ARIZONA BORDER AS A RESULT OF THE STEADY EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH.  THAT SHOULD RESULT IN LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
NEW MEXICO...STILL UNDER THE THETA-E RIDGE CONTINUES TO HAVE DECENT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.  SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA TO HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORM
WITH DAYTIME HEATING..ESPECIALLY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.  SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA AND A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

EL PASO               BB  62/ 85/ 62/ 88/ 62  32222
LAS CRUCES            BB  57/ 84/ 57/ 85/ 57  32222
ALAMOGORDO            BB  60/ 84/ 60/ 86/ 60  32211
CLOUDCROFT            BB  43/ 63/ 43/ 65/ 43  53322
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES BB  60/ 84/ 60/ 84/ 60  32211
SILVER CITY           BB  52/ 76/ 52/ 78/ 52  44433
DEMING                BB  56/ 86/ 56/ 86/ 56  33222
LORDSBURG             BB  56/ 88/ 56/ 88/ 56  33322

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