Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
225 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 1999

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TSTM CHANCES FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED BEHIND FIRST MCS THIS
AFTERNOON ON NOSE OF SURPRISINGLY STRONG LLJ FOR THIS TIME OF DAY.
DESPITE ATMOSPHERE BEING WORKED OVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...JET
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT OVER OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO ALLOW
CONVECTION TO PERSIST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT LYING FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SOUTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL GO MORE WITH ETA MODEL
WHICH IS HINTING AT NEXT MCS DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
KANSAS. THICKNESS CONTOURS WOULD FAVOR A SIMILAR MOVEMENT TO THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD TAKE MCS EAST-SOUTHEAST...
GENERALLY A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN LAST NIGHT. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
A POTENTIAL PROBLEM TONIGHT...AS THETA-E RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE AND WHEN
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT CWA WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FFA AT THIS TIME.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD GET A PUSH FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND
MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...FEEL THAT BEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
MORNING TOMORROW...AND THEN DRY BUT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.

WILL GENERALLY GO WITH COMPROMISE OF FWC AND FAN GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES.

.EAX...

KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

MJM