Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
215 PM CDT WED JUN 23 1999

RATHER IMPRESSIVE MESOSCALE FEATURES ACROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING COMPACT STRONG CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TRACKING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL
MO.  PROFILERS SHOW JET ENTERING WRN OK ATTM WHICH SEEMINGLY HAS
HELPED INTENSIFY CIRCULATION.  LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE IN TURN
STRENGTHENED...GIVING GOOD FEED OF TROPICAL AIR INTO WEAK BOUNDARY.
ETA SEEMS TO HAVE HANDLED THIS CIRCULATION REASONABLY WELL MINUS A
FEW DETAILS.  ATMOS HAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER TODAY WITH
2-3" RAIN REPORTS COMMON.  JET IN OK SHOULD HELP DRAG VORT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO ETA'S DEPICTION.

THAT SAID...CONCERNS FOR FIRST PERIOD ARE OBVIOUSLY +RA THREAT AND
THEN ENDING OF PCPN.  RATHER SHARP BACK EDGE TO PCPN SHIELD ATTM
WHICH HEAVIER PCPN SEEMS TO BE REINFORCING.  WITH PASSING OF
VORT...PCPN SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE.  TOYING WITH THE IDEA OF FF WATCH
FOR SERN ZONES GIVEN +RA THREAT FOR NEXT 4-6 HOURS.  FFG VALUES ARE
FAIRLY LOW.  HEAVIEST PCPN SEEMS TO BE BECOMING SOMEWHAT MORE
PROGRESSIVE NOW IN ITS SEWD MOVEMENT...SO AM LEANING AGAINST
ATTM...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR NEXT HOUR BEFORE MAKING FINAL CALL.

ONCE CLOUD CANOPY CLEARS LATER TONIGHT...WITH VERY WET GROUND AND
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT FOG TO BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.

TMRW SHOULD BE BEGINNING OF HOTTER DRIER PERIOD.  AREA GETS OUT OF
TRUE TROPICAL AIRMASS (ALTHOUGH BL DEWPOINTS WON'T DROP MUCH AT
ALL).  ATMOS STILL FAIRLY UNCAPPED WHICH IS A BIT UNSETTLING.  FOR
NOW...AM ENVISIONING SCENARIO WHERE CWA IS IN SUBSIDENT REGION
BETWEEN MCS IN OK AND UPPER WAVE IN OH VALLEY.  IF SUBSIDENCE ISN'T
STRONG ENOUGH...COULD POP AN ISOLATED TSRA OR TWO...BUT THREAT IS
TOO LOW TO CARRY.

TEMPS SHOULD WARM...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE TO FWC LEVELS AS
MORNING FOG AND/OR AFTN CU WILL SLOW THINGS A BIT.  MCI WILL MAKE A
REAL RUN FOR ITS FIRST 90 DEG TEMP THIS YEAR ON FRI.  EXTENDED LOOKS
LIKE SUMMER.

.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

JM

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043
>046-053-054-241100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT WED JUN 23 1999

...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

FORECAST:  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE KANSAS CITY
METRO AREA TO KIRKSVILLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THIS MORNING HAVE LEFT MANY
AREAS WITH FLASH FLOODING...MAINLY IN COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONLY ADD
TO THE FLOODING PROBLEMS.

DISCUSSION: A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MISSOURI. AS THIS FRONT MOVES SOUTH...THE RAINFALL SHOULD
TAPER OFF IN MOST AREAS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.

LVQ