Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
319 PM CDT FRI JUL 9 1999

CD FNT MAKING STEADY SWRD PROGRESS FM NRN PLNS THIS AM. 0700 UTC MTR
DATA SUGGESTS FNT LIES ALG BFF TO SPW LN WHILE 88-D RETURNS SHW
PCPN/CNVTN LOCATED IN ADVANCE OF CD FNT CURRENTLY PUNCHING INTO NW
MO. MODEL GRIDDED DATA SUGGESTS STG GRADIENT OF H8-H7 FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING MVG THRU NRN HALF OF CWA IN 1200-1800 UTC TIME FRAME AND BET
1800-0000 UTC ACR SRN HALF OF FCST AREA. ETA FCST OF THIS LIFT APPRS
TO BE IN LINE WITH CRNT MVMNT AND LOCATION OF PCPN OVR ERN NE/IA.
WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACR NRN CWA MAINLY THIS AM AND NOT
SURE WHETHER TO STAY WITH CHC POPS OR UP TO LIKELY FOR SRN ZNS. LAST
NITES UPR AIR ANLYS AND MODEL FCST OF JET STREAKS AT H5/H3 HINT THAT
PSBL INDIRECT CIRCULATION IN RIGHT EXIT RGN ENHANCING HEAVIER RAINFALL
TO N OF FCST AREA THIS AM. WILL PROBABLY MENTION PSBL +RA FOR N THIS
AM BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF SRN HALF AS CD FNT OUTRUNS UPR SUPPORT.

DO NOT PLAN ON TWEEKING TEMPS MUCH THRU FCST PRD. CRNT FCST TEMPS
PRETTY MUCH IN LN WITH FWC GUIDANCE. CAN VISION XTND FCST TEMPS A
BIT COOLER FOR SUN BUT WILL NOT CHG ATTM.

NOT A LOT OF TIME AVBL THIS AM FOR DISCUSSION. WITH TEMPORARY
OPERATIONS SET UP AT CRH NEED TO GET BUSY ON XMITTING ZNS AND
FIGURING OUT A WAY TO XMIT QPS FCST. FOR BASIN AVERAGE FCST...PRETTY
MUCH AGREE WITH 6 HR QPF ISSUED AT 0600 UTC BY NCEP WITH BASIN
AVWERAGE BET QUARTER AND HALF INCH.

EAX...NONE

BODNER

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043
>046-053-054-101100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 1999

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...

FORECAST: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY FALL GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ST JOSEPH TO CHILLICOTHE TO MACON.

DISCUSSION: A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH WEAK ATMOSPHERIC WINDS AND
WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS PRESENT WHICH MAY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DB

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043
>046-053-054-101100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
245 PM CDT FRI JUL 9 1999

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...

FORECAST: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT.  ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO A HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER....ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES.  THESE THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

DISCUSSION: A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH WEAK ATMOSPHERIC WINDS AND
WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT WHICH MAY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

HUDSON